Cyclicity Of Housing Markets Under The Specific Condition Of The Existence Of A Bubble In The Real Estate Market

Abstract

In recent years, real estate bubbles have been commonplace in housing markets all over the world. That´s why we examine the relation between housing prices during bubbles in 101 cities located in ten different countries, aiming to explain the housing market cycle during a housing bubble, using economic and housing indicators. We obtained data on eight variables used in market cycle analysis which may be able to explain the existence of speculation and the ideal market cycle. The obtained resultsshow that many of economic and housing indicators begin to decrease while housing prices peak. Only the quantity of transactions peaks during the following year. We also observed that a housing bubble can follow three different scenarios, i.e.: the bubble does not burst, or can burst with a slow decline or sudden and rapid collapse. Finally, it is possible to determine that the same variables can provide clear insight into a bubble in the real estate cycle.

Is there a Housing Bubble in Turkey?

“…However, because very few economists appreciated the most recent global housing bubble (GERARDI, FOOTE and WILLEN 2010), it is obvious that defining the bubble is a complex job. For example, WEISE, PHILIPS and HOCHHEIM (2015) suggest that a housing bubble can follow three different scenarios, i.e. : the bubble does not burst, or can burst with a slow decline or sudden and rapid collapse.…”