Cyclone life cycle characteristics over the Northern Hemisphere in coupled GCMs

Löptien, Ulrike; Zolina, Olga; Gulev, Sergey; Latif, Mojib; Soloviov, Vladimir

doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0355-5

Cited by 65 publications

(81 citation statements)

References 89 publications

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“…These deviations are probably due to the model design, for example with regard to orography and ice cover (Bengtsson et al, 2006). However, the cyclone densities of the model correspond to ERA-40, especially for winter (Löptien et al, 2008). The 20C scenario agrees reasonably well with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data despite some discrepancies in magnitude and the location of the maxima (Pinto et al, 2007).…”

Section: Cyclone Densitiesmentioning

confidence: 57%

A radius –depth model for midlatitude cyclones in reanalysis data and simulations

Schneidereit

Blender

Fraedrich

2010

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Section: Cyclone Densitiesmentioning

confidence: 57%

A radius –depth model for midlatitude cyclones in reanalysis data and simulations

Schneidereit

Blender

Fraedrich

2010

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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“…This is of some concern because a systematic analysis of cyclone tracks (e.g. similar to analysis carried out by Löptien et al, 2008) simulated with RCA3 has not been carried out yet. We use cloud cover, precipitation, near-surface humidity, air pressure, temperature and wind speed from the RCA3 model at a temporal resolution of 3 h as provided by the Rossby Centre at SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden.…”

Section: Air-sea Fluxesmentioning

confidence: 99%

MOMBA 1.1 – a high-resolution Baltic Sea configuration of GFDL's Modular Ocean Model

2014

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Abstract. We present a new coupled ocean-circulation-ice model configuration of the Baltic Sea. The model features, contrary to most existing configurations, a high horizontal resolution of ≈ 1 nautical mile (≈ 1.85 km), which is eddyresolving over much of the domain. The vertical discretisation comprises a total of 47 vertical levels. Results from a 1987 to 1999 hindcast simulation show that the model's fidelity is competitive. As suggested by a comparison with sea surface temperatures observed from space, this applies especially to near-surface processes. Hence, the configuration is well suited to serve as a nucleus of a fully fledged coupled ocean-circulation-biogeochemical model (which is yet to be developed). A caveat is that the model fails to reproduce major inflow events. We trace this back to spurious vertical circulation patterns at the sills which may well be endemic to high-resolution models based on geopotential coordinates. Further, we present indications that -so far neglected -eddy/wind effects exert significant control on windinduced up-and downwelling.

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“…As such, there has been major interest in understanding how the mid-latitude cyclone frequency may change in the future (McCabe et al, 2001;Fyfe, 2003;Yin, 2005;Lambert and Fyfe, 2006;Bengtsson et al, 2006;Pinto et al, 2007;Löptien et al, 2007;Ulbrich et al, 2008Ulbrich et al, , 2009Lang and Waugh, 2011). Most models consistently project a shift in wintertime cyclones in a warming climate (Meehl et al, 2007) but as of now there is no consensus among model predictions as to how summertime cyclone frequencies may change (Lang and Waugh, 2011).…”

Section: A J Turner Et Al: Summertime Cyclones Over the Glst From mentioning

confidence: 99%

Summertime cyclones over the Great Lakes Storm Track from 1860–2100: variability, trends, and association with ozone pollution

et al. 2013

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Abstract. Prior work indicates that the frequency of summertime mid-latitude cyclones tracking across the Great Lakes Storm Track (GLST, bounded by: 70 • W, 90 • W, 40 • N, and 50 • N) are strongly anticorrelated with ozone (O 3 ) pollution episodes over the Northeastern United States (US). We apply the MAP Climatology of Mid-latitude Storminess (MCMS) algorithm to 6-hourly sea level pressure fields from over 2500 yr of simulations with the GFDL CM3 global coupled chemistry-climate model. These simulations include (1) 875 yr with constant 1860 emissions and forcings (Preindustrial Control), (2) five ensemble members for 1860-2005 emissions and forcings (Historical), and (3) future (2006-2100) scenarios following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and a sensitivity simulation to isolate the role of climate warming from changes in O 3 precursor emissions (RCP 4.5 * ). The GFDL CM3 Historical simulations capture the mean and variability of summertime cyclones traversing the GLST within the range determined from four reanalysis datasets. Over the 21st century (2006-2100), the frequency of summertime midlatitude cyclones in the GLST decreases under the RCP 8.5 scenario and in the RCP 4.5 ensemble mean. These trends are significant when assessed relative to the variability in the Pre-industrial Control simulation. In addition, the RCP 4.5 * scenario enables us to determine the relationship between summertime GLST cyclones and high-O 3 events (> 95th percentile) in the absence of emission changes. The summertime GLST cyclone frequency explains less than 10 % of the variability in high-O 3 events over the Northeastern US in the model, implying that other factors play an equally important role in determining high-O 3 events.

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Cyclone life cycle characteristics over the Northern Hemisphere in coupled GCMs

Cited by 65 publications

References 89 publications

A radius –depth model for midlatitude cyclones in reanalysis data and simulations

A radius –depth model for midlatitude cyclones in reanalysis data and simulations

MOMBA 1.1 – a high-resolution Baltic Sea configuration of GFDL's Modular Ocean Model

Summertime cyclones over the Great Lakes Storm Track from 1860–2100: variability, trends, and association with ozone pollution

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