Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection occurs frequently in young children, who, when infected, are then a major source of transmission. Oral CMV shedding by 14 infants with primary infection was comprehensively characterized using quantitative polymerase chain reaction weekly for ≥9 months. Three phases of oral shedding were identified: expansion, transition, and clearance. Viral expansion occurred over a median of 7 weeks, with a median doubling time of 3 days. During the transition phase, expansion slowed over a median of 6 weeks before peak viral load was reached. Clearance was slow (22-day median half-life), and shedding did not resolve during observation for any infant. Mathematical modeling demonstrated that prolonged oral CMV expansion is explained by a low within-host reproduction number (median, 1.63) and a delayed immune response that only decreases the infected cell half-life by 44%. Thus, the prolonged oral CMV shedding observed during primary infection can be explained by slow viral expansion and inefficient immunologic control.Keywords. epidemiology; cytomegalovirus; transmission; mathematical model; immunology; theoretical biology.Worldwide, most primary cytomegalovirus (CMV) infections occur during early childhood, through the oral route [1]. Infected infants shed CMV orally at high, persistent levels [2-6] and are a major source of transmission, including to pregnant women, which contributes to congenital infection [3,[7][8][9]. Viral dynamics during primary infection are governed by properties of viral infectivity and the immune response. A detailed study of these processes could identify immunologic thresholds necessary for effective vaccination. Here, we use mathematical models to describe oral shedding dynamics during primary CMV infection in a cohort of Ugandan infants.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Study Cohort and DataAs previously described [10], pregnant women in Kampala were enrolled, and oral swabs were collected in a standardized manner [11] from the mother and all children for quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) analysis of CMV [12]. Blood samples were collected from the infants at 6 weeks of age and every 4 months thereafter. Oral swabs and plasma samples were tested for CMV, using real-time qPCR. Primary infection was defined virologically and serologically as described elsewhere [10]. Additional information about subject selection is provided in the Supplementary Materials. This study was approved by all relevant institutional review boards in Uganda, the United States, and Canada. Written informed consent was obtained from all study participants or their guardians.
Statistical Analysis and Classification of EpisodesEpisode duration was defined as the interval from the start of oral shedding until the end of observation. Correlations between same-day log 10 copies of CMV in plasma and oral swabs were calculated using Pearson correlation for all values and for positive values only. To see whether positive plasma samples were associated with higher oral log 10 CMV levels, we performed ...