Daily prediction of seasonal grapevine production in the Douro wine region based on favourable meteorological conditions

Fraga, Hélder; Santos, João A.

doi:10.1111/ajgw.12278

Cited by 45 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…Elevated growing‐season April to September average temperatures ( T ave Apr‐Sep) and heat sums (GDD‐AprSep, HI), lower rates of precipitation from May (P‐May) accompanied by not too dry conditions during the flowering stage (CDD‐f), and high daily maximum temperatures ( T max‐v ) associated with a high frequency of summer days (SU25‐v) from véraison to maturity time are related to high grapevine yields. These results are consistent with other studies performed in the area, such as those of Corte‐Real (), Fraga and Santos () and Santos et al . (; ).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 94%

“…Most recently, a grape production model has been developed by Fraga and Santos (), relating daily historic temperature and precipitation from the E‐OBS observational data set with the grape production of three wineries within the Douro Valley region. The model compared thermal/hydric conditions each year with the average conditions for high‐ and low‐yield vintages.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change impact on a wine‐producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices

Blanco‐Ward

Monteiro

Lopes

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Climate change is of major relevance to wine production as most of the wine‐growing regions of the world are located within relatively narrow latitudinal bands with average growing‐season temperatures (GSTs) limited to 13–21°C. This study focuses on the incidence of climate variables and indices that are relevant both for climate change assessment and for grape production, with emphasis on grapevine bioclimatic indices and extreme events (e.g., cold waves, storms, heatwaves). Dynamical downscaling of European Reanalysis‐Interim and Max Planck Institute Earth System low‐resolution global simulations forced with a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenario was performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to a regional scale including the Douro Valley of Portugal for recent‐past (1986–2005) and future periods (2046–2065, 2081–2100). The number, duration and intensity of events were superimposed over critical phenological phases estimated by using a specific local grapevine varietal phenological model in order to assess their positive or negative implications for wine production in the region. An assessment of the relevance of climate parameters and indices and their progression in recent‐past and future climate scenarios with regard to the potential impact on wine production was performed. Results indicate a positive relation between higher growing‐season heat accumulations and greater vintage yields. A moderate incidence of very hot days (daily maximum temperature above 35°C) and drought from pre‐véraison phenological conditions have a positive association with vintage ratings. However, the mid‐ and long‐term WRF‐MPI RCP8.5 future climate scenarios reveal shifts to warmer and drier conditions, with the mean GST not remaining within range for quality wine production in the long‐term future climate scenario. These results indicate potential impacts that suggest a range of strategies to maintain wine production and quality in the region.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 94%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impact on a wine‐producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices

Blanco‐Ward

Monteiro

Lopes

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…A large number of grapevine varieties (Vitis vinifera L.) are grown in the region, being many of them native. The complex physiographic and pedoclimatic characteristics of the DDR not only provide a wide range of terroirs for grapevine growth [4], but also make wine production very costly in terms of labour force and vineyard management [5]. Given the heterogeneous conditions in which grapevines are grown within the DDR, it is imperative to better understand the climatic influences on grapevine development in order to improve vineyard management in such a diverse region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Grapevine Phenology of cv. Touriga Franca and Touriga Nacional in the Douro Wine Region: Modelling and Climate Change Projections

et al. 2019

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Projections of grapevine phenophases under future climate change scenarios are strategic decision support tools for viticulturists and wine producers. Several phenological models are tested for budburst, flowering, and veraison and for two main grapevine varieties (cv. Touriga Franca and Touriga Nacional) growing in the Douro Demarcated Region. Four forcing models (Growing degree-days, Richardson, Sigmoid, and Wang) and three dormancy models (Bidabe, Smoothed Utah and Chuine), with different parameterizations and combinations, are used. New datasets, combing phenology with weather station data, widespread over the Douro wine region, were used for this purpose. The eight best performing models and parameterizations were selected for each phenophase and variety, based on performance metrics. For both cultivars, results revealed moderate performances (0.4 < R2 < 0.7) for budburst, while high performances (R2 > 0.7) were found for flowering and veraison, particularly when Growing degree-days or Sigmoid models are used, respectively. Climate change projections were based on a two-member climate model ensemble from the EURO-CORDEX project under RCP4.5. Projections depicted an anticipation of phenophase timings by 6, 8 or 10–12 days until the end of the century for budburst, flowering, and veraison, respectively. The inter-model variability is of approximately 2–4 days for flowering and veraison and 4–6 days for budburst. These results establish grounds for the implementation of a decision support system for monitoring and short-term prediction of grapevine phenology, thus promoting a more efficient viticulture.

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“…Climate is an important forcing factor on grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) physiological development [2], vegetative growth [3], phenology [4], production, and consequently on wine quality. Climatic factors also determine the geographical location of vineyards [5], and the variability in the weather parameters, such as air temperatures, precipitation, and solar radiation, leads to annual changes in productivity [6,7]. Weather extremes are also known to have detrimental impacts on grapevine productivity and quality, namely hail, late frost spells, and excessive rainfall [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Viticulture and Winemaking under Climate Change

Fraga

2019

Agronomy

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The importance of viticulture and the winemaking socio-economic sector is acknowledged worldwide. The most renowned winemaking regions show very specific environmental characteristics, where climate usually plays a central role. Considering the strong influence of weather and climatic factors on grapevine yields and berry quality attributes, climate change may indeed significantly impact this crop. Recent-past trends already point to a pronounced increase in the growing season mean temperatures, as well as changes in the precipitation regimes, which has been influencing wine typicity across some of the most renowned winemaking regions worldwide. Moreover, several climate scenarios give evidence of enhanced stress conditions for grapevine growth until the end of the century. Although grapevines have a high resilience, the clear evidence for significant climate change in the upcoming decades urges adaptation and mitigation measures to be taken by the sector stakeholders. To provide hints on the abovementioned issues, we have edited a special issue entitled: "Viticulture and Winemaking under Climate Change". Contributions from different fields were considered, including crop and climate modeling, and potential adaptation measures against these threats. The current special issue allows the expansion of the scientific knowledge of these particular fields of research, also providing a path for future research.

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Daily prediction of seasonal grapevine production in the Douro wine region based on favourable meteorological conditions

Cited by 45 publications

References 54 publications

Climate change impact on a wine‐producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices

Climate change impact on a wine‐producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices

Grapevine Phenology of cv. Touriga Franca and Touriga Nacional in the Douro Wine Region: Modelling and Climate Change Projections

Viticulture and Winemaking under Climate Change

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