Damaged Relations: How Treaty Withdrawal Impacts International Cooperation

Abstract

How does treaty withdrawal affect the prospects of international cooperation? One common explanation is that withdrawal causes states to develop reputations for unreliability. Another suggests that the consequences of withdrawal follow from its material costs. I argue, instead, that withdrawal shapes international cooperation through the breach of trust. When states exit treaties unilaterally, they violate the norm that agreements must be kept, undermining the foundation of trust upon which cooperation is based. As a result, treaty members begin to opt out of ratifying agreements with the withdrawing state whereas treaty non-members take no such action. I test this argument by applying a difference-in-differences design to an original dataset consisting of the universe of multilateral treaties recorded by the United Nations. I complement this statistical analysis with a case study of France's withdrawal from the NATO status of forces treaty. Throughout, I find evidence consistent with my theory. These findings point toward the important but overlooked interplay between norms and trust in shaping the evolution of multilateral cooperation.

Treaty Withdrawal and the Development of International Law

“…First, treaty members perceive unilateral exit as an abrogation of the exiting state's normative commitments, undermining the relationships upon which subsequent cooperation is based (Schmidt, 2023). When states ratify treaties they self-categorize into a group of states defined by their shared commitment to the treaty.…”

“…Second, when unilateral exit occurs, remaining parties often publicly defend their ongoing commitment to the treaty. Mounting a public defense entangles them in the diplomatic fallout of exit, increases the salience of withdrawal, and politicizes future international cooperation (Schmidt, 2023). Resent research shows that direct diplomatic involvement and increased media coverage can magnify the impact of an event on states' willingness to trust and cooperate with one another (Mutz, 2021;Yarhi-Milo, 2013, 12).…”