Dampak Moneter Kebijakan Defisit Anggaran Pemerintah Dan Peranan Asa Nalar Dalam Simulasi Model Makro-Ekonomi Indonesia (1983:1-2002:4)

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to observe the impact of the budget deficit policy on the macroeconomic variables in general, and specifically on the monetary variables in the short and long run.We apply macroeconomic model with rational expectation specification to allow agents altering their economic decision in encountering the authority policies. The model constructed contains eight (8) long run behavior equations, eight (8) short run behavior equations, four (4) rational expectation equations, and at least twelve (12) identity equations. The parameters are estimated by using the Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) method. The endogenous variables which has become the independent variables are replaced by the instrument al variables. The instrumental variables are obtained from the reduced form structural equations.The statistical test on the impact of budget deficit on monetary variables are conducted by using reduced form equations and causality test. Both of the tests show that budget deficit through the government revenue mechanism affects the interest rate in the short and long run. In the short run through government expenditure mechanism, budget deficit would affect the exchange rate and price level. In the long run, however, causality tests show that the exchange rate and price level would in turn affect the budget deficit.Keywords: macro model, monetary policy, fiscal budgetJEL: B22, D84, E44, E63

Macroeconomic Structural Change in Indonesia: in The Period of 1990 to 2011

“…This condition can be explained that instability behavior of the independent variable, primarily due to shocks caused by changes in economic regimes [18]. Stability test result for private consumption equation in short term period and long term period can be seen in Fig.…”

“…Simultaneous equation model consists of three blocks, namely block of goods market, money market blocks and blocks of aggregate supply Block of Goods Market: The equations used in this study are the simultaneous equations, so that the model stability test is done indirectly. If simultaneous equations are stable, then the system will converge to a solution of dynamic [18]. If simultaneous equations are not stable, then the system will not converge so that there is no dynamic solution.…”

“…The findings in this study indicate that the policy implication of monetary policy in Indonesia requires the support and commitment of fiscal discipline to maintain its sustainability. Reference [18] show that a little or a lot, the budget deficit policy affects interest rates, exchange rates and the price level (inflation). In addition, there was an interrelationship between the budget deficit and the policy of monetary variables.…”

Analisis Pengaruh Harga Crude Palm Oil (Cpo) Dunia Terhadap Nilai Tukar Riil Rupiah

“…Sejak UU No. 23 Tahun 1999 diberlakukan, BI tidak diperbolehkan memberikan dana talangan terhadap pengeluaran pemerintah dan atau bahkan membiayai defisit rekening pemerintah di BI (Maryatmo, 2004). Dana talangan ini dapat mempunyai konsekuensi meningkatkan uang inti dan akhirnya mempengaruhi jumlah uang beredar.…”

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Analysis: Which Is More Effective?

“…Research results by Rahutami (2007) show that fiscal and monetary policy is causality, that fiscal and monetary coordination was important because interest rates and money are the two primary variables that should get more attention from Bank Indonesia because it interacts strongly with the Government budget. Maryatmo (2004) States that reciprocal relationship exists between the fiscal and monetary variables as 2014 Yunanto & Medyawati 223 well as the relationship of reciprocity between the fiscal and monetary instruments mutually eliminate (substitution). Mochtar (2004), states that in maintaining price stability, the Monetary Authority requires a high commitment of the fiscal authority to discipline and fiscal sustainability.…”