2007
DOI: 10.5194/acp-7-2287-2007
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Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study

Abstract: Abstract. We investigate the issue of "dangerous humanmade interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880-2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the "alternative" scenario of Hansen and Sato (2004). Identification of "dangerous" effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1 • C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, … Show more

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Cited by 216 publications
(153 citation statements)
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References 131 publications
(251 reference statements)
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“…Overall, the model captures historical trends influenced by a variety of natural and anthropogenic factors remarkably well, inspiring some confidence in the model's projection of future fires. GISS GCM climate simulations (19), like other models, predict a significant warming over the forthcoming century (Fig. 2B).…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…Overall, the model captures historical trends influenced by a variety of natural and anthropogenic factors remarkably well, inspiring some confidence in the model's projection of future fires. GISS GCM climate simulations (19), like other models, predict a significant warming over the forthcoming century (Fig. 2B).…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…8 for detailed method description and evaluation) are based on temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and lightning activity generated in AR4 GISS GCM climate simulations and HYDE (past) and Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) (future) land-cover and population density datasets. Climate during the 844-1880 CE simulations (9) was driven by variations in solar irradiance [responsible for the vast majority of multidecadal time-scale forced variability (30)]; 1880-2003 simulations (10) were driven by multiple forcings, including greenhouse gases, tropospheric aerosols, ozone, solar irradiance, and volcanic aerosols; 2004-2100 simulations (19) were driven by changes in the wellmixed greenhouse gases [the dominant climate forcing over the past few decades (19)]. Anthropogenic ignition sources are calculated as an increasing function of population density while assuming that people living in sparsely populated regions interact more with natural ecosystems and therefore produce potentially more ignitions (31).…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…However, the climate system's long response time and slow mixing of heat into the ocean are a mixed benefit to society. Warming of the deep ocean may have at least two long-range detrimental effects (Hansen et al 2006b): erosion of ice shelves around Antarctica and Greenland (Rignot & Jacobs 2002), and destabilization of methane hydrates on continental shelves (Harvey & Huang 1995;Archer 2007). The ocean's slow response delays such effects, but there is the danger of setting in motion a warming of the deep ocean that will lock in disastrous impacts which will unfold for future generations.…”
Section: Carbon Cycle and Climate Changementioning
confidence: 99%
“…However one of the scientific challenges is understanding the mechanisms responsible for removing anthropogenic CO 2 from the atmosphere. Observations demonstrate that about half of the emitted CO 2 is absorbed by biospheric sinks -the terrestrial biosphere and the ocean (Hansen et al, 2007). There are a number of essential questions related to the biogeochemical cycle of CO 2 to be solved by the scientific community.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%