Dangerous levels of climate change for agricultural production in China

Abstract

There are increasing attempts to define the measures of 'dangerous anthropogenic inference with the climate system' in context of Article 2 of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, due to its linkage to goals for stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. The criteria for identifying dangerous anthropogenic interference may be characterized in terms of the consequences of climate change. In this study, we use the water stress index (WSI) and agricultural net primary production (NPP) as indictors to assess where and when there might be dangerous effects arising from the projected climate changes for Chinese agricultural production. The results showed that based on HadCM3-based climate change scenarios, the region between the North China Plain and Northeast China Plain Generally, while projected climate change could bring some potentially improved conditions for Chinese agriculture, it could also bring some critical adverse changes in water resources, which would affect the overall outcome. At this stage, while we have identified certain risks and established the general shape of the damage curve expressed as a function of global mean temperature increase, more works are needed to identify specific changes which could be dangerous for food security in China. Therefore, there is a need for the development of more integrated assessment models, which include social-economic, agricultural production and food trade modules, to help identify thresholds for impacts in further studies.

Contraction of the Gobi Desert, 2000–2012

“…The central and southern Gobi experiences monsoonal climate variability that influences vegetation biomass [15]; the northern portion is strongly affected by the Siberian-Mongolian High pressure cell that contributes to cold and dry climatic conditions [53]. Factors such as El Niño events affect drought and flood patterns in northern China and have resulted in a 15% variance in regional agricultural harvests [54]. La Niña conditions also impact winter droughts in northern China where temperature differences and atmospheric pressure between the continent and Indo-Pacific Oceans affects the East Asian winter monsoon flow.…”

Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions, climate change and limits to warming

“…Elsewhere, however, in regions where crop production has, or is projected to increase, there may be feeling that this is in fact an opportunity for greater exports, or at the least food deficits could be dealt via food aid programmes, in other words by compensation rather than by prevention. Tao et al (2010) explore risks for food production in China and in overall terms find that there is insufficient work available to define whether the risks could be dangerous for agricultural production in China, with some likelihood of improved conditions. In common with many other studies of this region, this work shows the importance of the strength of the CO 2 fertilization effect, which remains uncertain.…”

CERES‐Maize model‐based simulation of climate change impacts on maize yields and potential adaptive measures in Heilongjiang Province, China

“…Agriculture is one of the most sensitive systems to climate change . Climate change, especially increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations, will result in increasing global temperatures and change current rainfall patterns.…”