Dangerous to claim “no clear association” between intergenerational relationships and COVID-19

Dowd, Jennifer Beam; Block, Per; Rotondi, Valentina; Mills, Melinda

doi:10.1073/pnas.2016831117

Cited by 9 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Subsequently, research demonstrated that, for older individuals, residing with working-age individuals was associated with increased COVID-19 mortality (Branden et al 2020 ). Yet, this conclusion, obtained at an individual level, did not receive unambiguous support at an aggregate level (Arpino et al 2020 ; Aparicio and Grossbard 2020 ; Dowd et al 2020b ). In any case, the “Jewish penalty” in Britain holds good with the effect of household composition controlled for as the ONS analysis showed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Intergenerational contact and living arrangements were also highlighted as potentially important factors behind mortality from COVID-19 (Balbo et al 2020b ; Dowd et al 2020a , b ; Esteve et al 2020 ). Increased social contact, for example, co-residence of the elderly with their grown children as well as involvement of the elderly in childcare support, was hypothetically linked to increased exposure to COVID-19.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Elevated Jewish Mortality from Coronavirus in England and Wales: An Epidemiological and Demographic Detective Story

Staetsky

2021

Cont Jewry

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Elevated Jewish Mortality from Coronavirus in England and Wales: An Epidemiological and Demographic Detective Story

Staetsky

2021

Cont Jewry

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“…Multiple demographic and socio-economic factors likely drive differential COVID-19 burden across income groups. Expansive population pyramids and tropical climates may reduce COVID-19 transmission and severe disease in many LMIC (1–3), while high contact rates, high prevalence of comorbidities, high population densities, and limited healthcare capacity could increase burden (4–8). While many LMIC have had lower COVID-19 burdens than HIC, weak surveillance systems (9) could also affect epidemic estimates.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding COVID-19 dynamics and the effects of interventions in the Philippines: A mathematical modelling study

Caldwell

Lara-Tuprio

Teng

et al. 2021

Preprint

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BackgroundCOVID-19 appears to have caused less severe outbreaks in many low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) compared with high-income countries, possibly because of differing demographics, socio-economics, climate, surveillance, and policy responses. The Philippines is a LMIC that has had a relatively severe COVID-19 outbreak but has recently curtailed transmission while gradually easing interventions.MethodsWe applied an age-structured compartmental model that incorporated time-varying mobility, testing, and personal protective behaviors (through a “Minimum Health Standards” policy, MHS) to represent the Philippines COVID-19 epidemic nationally and for three highly affected regions (Calabarzon, Central Visayas, and the National Capital Region). We estimated effects of control measures, key epidemiological parameters, and projected the impacts of easing interventions.ResultsPopulation age structure, contact rates, mobility, testing, and MHS were sufficient to explain the Philippines epidemic based on the good fit between modelled and reported cases, hospitalisations, and deaths. Several of the fitted epidemiological parameters were consistent with those reported in high-income settings. The model indicated that MHS reduced the probability of transmission per contact by 15-32%. The December 2020 case detection rate was estimated at ∼14%, population recovered at ∼12%, and scenario projections indicated high sensitivity to MHS adherence.ConclusionsCOVID-19 dynamics in the Philippines are driven by age, contact structure, and mobility, and the epidemic can be understood within a similar framework as for high-income settings. Continued compliance with low-cost MHS measures should allow the Philippines to maintain epidemic control, but disease resurgence remains a threat due to low population immunity and detection rates.

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“…Dowd et al (1) state that it is "dangerous to claim 'no clear association' between intergenerational relationships and COVID-19." We agree.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The main criticism in ref. 1 originates in a misunderstanding of our macro-level analyses as a denial of risks inherent to intergenerational relationships (IR). It is valuable to have the opportunity to clarify this point.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Reply to Dowd et al.: Dangerous to overemphasize the importance of specific COVID-19 risk factors based on (unadjusted) macro-level analyses

Arpino

Bordone

Pasqualini

2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Dangerous to claim “no clear association” between intergenerational relationships and COVID-19

Cited by 9 publications

References 8 publications

Elevated Jewish Mortality from Coronavirus in England and Wales: An Epidemiological and Demographic Detective Story

Elevated Jewish Mortality from Coronavirus in England and Wales: An Epidemiological and Demographic Detective Story

Understanding COVID-19 dynamics and the effects of interventions in the Philippines: A mathematical modelling study

Reply to Dowd et al.: Dangerous to overemphasize the importance of specific COVID-19 risk factors based on (unadjusted) macro-level analyses

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