Daqing Crude Oil Price Forecast Based on the ARIMA Model

Abstract

Abstract:Oil is the lifeblood of the industrial economy, oil prices are affected by many factors. China is a major industrial country, changes in the price of oil will affect many aspects of economic development, and therefore the price of crude oil research is extremely important. In this paper, monthly average prices of crude oil in Daqing from January 2000 to December 2010 are utilized to do the research. Based on ARIMA model by building software using EVIEWS, rule of oil price movements is found and a prediction of oil price is made using the data from the first 10 months of 2011.

Evolution of Crude Oil Prices during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Application of Time Series ARIMA Forecasting Model

“…According to Table (8) above, It can be shown that most of the coefficients of the 9) values of the actual price of oil and the forecast price of oil above shows that the values are already approaching each other from the first week of April. Here, we can say that the results obtained are already satisfactory and that the process of predicting 'out of the sample can be carried out using Arima.…”

“…These depend on trust, expectations, speculation, and the desire to achieve earnings. Such decisions are also affected by geopolitical circumstances and assumptions about the course of price change, up or down (Quan, 2014). Interest rates could influence oil prices.…”