Purchase prediction is a key function in the e-commerce recommendation system. Existing works usually focus on item-level purchase prediction, which faces two issues of high cost and low accuracy. In this paper, we study brand purchase prediction by exploring behaviors, which may lead to brand purchases. We make three progresses. (1) We analyze a real world e-commerce data from multiple angles. Focusing on users' brand purchases, we find behaviors' evolution with time and behaviors' interaction.(2) For different behaviors, we extract different time-evolving features that can serve as indicators of users' brand purchase. (3) We use a logistic regression-based model by adjusting the parameters of time-evolving feature and others in two different scenarios (the promotion purchase prediction and the daily purchase prediction) to construct two experiments.The experiment results show that the model using three types features performs the best in both scenarios, and the time-evolving feature plays the most important role among them. (4) We distinguish the feature importance in different scenarios. Based on the importance, we find that users' purchases in the promotion scenario are likely to be impulsive, while purchases in the daily scenario are more likely to be influenced by users' activities.
KEYWORDSconsumer behaviors, e-commerce, purchase prediction
INTRODUCTIONPurchase prediction aims at predicting whether users would purchase something, which is a research topic that will benefit sellers' investment strategy. 1 However, in real e-commerce platforms, there are large numbers of items, which belong to a relatively small brands. In conducting traditional item-level prediction, we will face the issue of high cost and low accuracy due to the sparsity of the data. For example, the T-mall dataset we used contains more than 600 000 items, more than 30 000 users, and about 7000 brands. To overcome this issue, we study brand purchase prediction like the previous works of Jia et al 2 Zhao et al. 3 Our main idea is from exploring user behaviors on brands to exploit their time-evolving features and conduct the effective brand purchase prediction.There are various types of user behaviors, such as clicking, purchasing, adding to shopping cart, and collecting. More and more researches have been done from the analysis of user behaviors 4,5 to find users' purchase intentions. Hu et al 6 use behaviors as an implicit feedback, and users' credibilities of behaviors are used to measure their purchasing intentions. Sohail et al 7 use online reviews to obtain opinion features and uses these features to predict users' purchases of books. These works both use multi-dimensional features to construct purchase prediction models.Purchase prediction are mainly constructed from the item, while some work has studied from the perspectives of brands or categories. 8 Zhang and Pennacchiotti 9 and Sohail et al 10 proposed a brand recommendation model from the perspective of social networks and obtained good recommendation results. These works incite ...