Abstract:In the absence of real-time surveillance data, it is difficult to derive an early warning system and potential outbreak locations with the existing epidemiological models, especially in resource-constrained countries. We proposed a contagion risk index (CR-Index)—based on publicly available national statistics—founded on communicable disease spreadability vectors. Utilizing the daily COVID-19 data (positive cases and deaths) from 2020 to 2022, we developed country-specific and sub-national CR-Index for South A… Show more
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