Data-driven mid-air collision risk modelling using extreme-value theory

Figuet, Benoit; Monstein, Raphael; Waltert, Manuel; Morio, Jérôme

doi:10.1016/j.ast.2023.108646

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…In 2022, Noh S and John Shortle introduced the Dynamic Event Tree (DET) framework for assessing collision risks and safety spacing in various aircraft, applying it to simulated collision scenarios [ 17 ]. By 2023, Figuet B had developed a novel, data-driven method using Monte Carlo simulation and extreme value theory to estimate in-air collision probabilities, offering significant improvements over traditional approaches for assessing aircraft collision risk and safety spacing [ 18 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on Lateral Safety Spacing for Fusion Operation Based on Unmanned and Manned Aircraft-Event Modeling

Zhou,

Huang,

Huang

et al. 2024

Sensors

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With the rapid development of unmanned aerial vehicle technology and its increasing application across various fields, current airspace resources are insufficient for unmanned aerial vehicles’ needs. This paper, taking Zigong General Aviation Airport in Sichuan as a case study, explores the lateral safety spacing in a mixed operation mode of unmanned aerial vehicles and manned aircraft. Currently, there are no standardized regulations for the safe spacing of the fusion operation of unmanned and manned aircraft. Theoretical research is essential to provide a reference for actual operations. It introduces the UM-Event (unmanned and manned aircraft-event) collision risk model, an adaptation of the Event collision risk model, considering factors like communication, navigation, surveillance performance, human factors, collision avoidance equipment performance, and meteorology. Safety spacing was determined via simulation experiments and actual data analysis, adhering to the target safety level (TSL). Findings indicate that surveillance performance has a minor impact on safety spacing, while communication and navigation significantly influence it. The safety spacing, influenced solely by CNS (communication performance, navigation performance, surveillance performance) and combined factors, increased from 4.42 to 4.47 nautical miles. These results offer theoretical guidance for unmanned aerial vehicle safety in non-segregated airspace.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on Lateral Safety Spacing for Fusion Operation Based on Unmanned and Manned Aircraft-Event Modeling

Zhou,

Huang,

Huang

et al. 2024

Sensors

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“…Many financial time series data have been found to have a heavy tail distribution; namely, the tail of the distribution drops slowly when compared to the normal distribution, which can cause considerable financial risk [5]. It indicates the chance of extreme values occurring.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Value at Risk Estimation Using Extreme Value Theory Approach in Indonesia Stock Exchange

Najamuddin,

Herdiani,

Jaya

2024

BAREKENG: J. Math. & App.

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Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is a method used to identify extreme cases in heavy tail data such as financial time series data. This research aimed to obtain an estimate of stock risk through the EVT approach and compare the accuracy of the two EVT approaches, Block Maxima (BM) and Peaks Over Threshold (POT). The method used to estimate stock risk is VaR with the BM and POT approaches, and the Z statistic is used to compare the accuracy. The data used, and the limitation in this research is daily closing price data for non-cyclical consumer stocks included in LQ45 for the period February 01, 2017, to January 31, 2023. Other research limitations are using weekly blocks or 5 working days in dividing BM blocks, using the percentage method in determining threshold values in the POT approach, and using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) to estimate EVT parameter estimates. The results of the VaR analysis show that the risk level generated by the POT method is greater than the risk level from BM. The results of backtesting between the two EVT approaches in estimating VaR values show that the POT approach is more accurate than the BM approach.

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“…One of the most high-risk areas is in the vicinity of controlled airports, where traffic density is high, and, most notably, there are operations of large transport aircraft, where the potential consequences of an airborne collision are enormous. In the past, studies have been conducted to model the probability of an air collision between two manned aircraft [15]. However, determining the probability of a collision between a manned aircraft and a UAS is more complex using these methodologies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating U-Space for UAM in Dense Controlled Airspace

Černý,

Kleczatský,

Tlučhoř

et al. 2023

Drones

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The operation of unmanned aircraft systems in shared airspace can serve as an accelerator for the global economy and a sensitive addition to the existing mix of transportation modes. For these reasons, concepts of Unmanned Traffic Management have been recently published, defining advanced rules for all potential participants in the operation of unmanned systems. Airspace primarily dedicated to automated unmanned system operations, referred to as U-space in Europe, needs to be designated with consideration for the surrounding airspace. This is especially important in cases where the airspace is controlled, and when declaring U-space airspace, it is necessary to pay particular attention to the density of surrounding air traffic. The goal of this article is to assess the suitability of establishing U-space airspace for Urban Air Mobility in terms of traffic density in a controlled area above the selected metropolis, which is Prague, Czech Republic. To achieve this goal, data on air traffic in the given area were analyzed to obtain precise information about the traffic distribution. Areas in which the establishment of U-space airspace is possible both without implementing dynamic reconfiguration and with the application of the dynamic reconfiguration concept were also selected. The result is the determination of whether it is possible to establish U-space in airspace, as in the analyzed case of the Ruzyně CTR, U-space can be introduced in 83 % of the territory.

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Data-driven mid-air collision risk modelling using extreme-value theory

Cited by 7 publications

References 22 publications

Research on Lateral Safety Spacing for Fusion Operation Based on Unmanned and Manned Aircraft-Event Modeling

Research on Lateral Safety Spacing for Fusion Operation Based on Unmanned and Manned Aircraft-Event Modeling

Value at Risk Estimation Using Extreme Value Theory Approach in Indonesia Stock Exchange

Evaluating U-Space for UAM in Dense Controlled Airspace

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