Data driven pathway analysis and forecast of global warming and sea level rise

Abstract

Climate change is a critical issue of our time, and its causes, pathways, and forecasts remain a topic of broader discussion. In this paper, we present a novel data driven pathway analysis framework to identify the key processes behind mean global temperature and sea level rise, and to forecast the magnitude of their increase from the present to 2100. Based on historical data and dynamic statistical modeling alone, we have established the causal pathways that connect increasing greenhouse gas emissions to increasing global mean temperature and sea level, with its intermediate links encompassing humidity, sea ice coverage, and glacier mass, but not for sunspot numbers. Our results indicate that if no action is taken to curb anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature would rise to an estimated 3.28 °C (2.46–4.10 °C) above its pre-industrial level while the global sea level would be an estimated 573 mm (474–671 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. However, if countries adhere to the greenhouse gas emission regulations outlined in the 2021 United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26), the rise in global temperature would lessen to an average increase of 1.88 °C (1.43–2.33 °C) above its pre-industrial level, albeit still higher than the targeted 1.5 °C, while the sea level increase would reduce to 449 mm (389–509 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100.

Comparative analysis of decarbonization of local public transportation: A real case study

“…This change will contribute to global warming, a practical problem widely discussed in the literature. The study [ 6 ] proposed different models that forecast the number of days per year with temperature over 32 °C (in 2070, the models predicted 46 days above 32 °C while the more pessimistic ones indicated 60 days). The main reason for climate change is the Greenhouse Gasses (GHGs) emissions composed of carbon dioxide and methane that have grown by 47 % and 156 % since 1750 [ 7 , 8 ].…”

Hyperthermia-induced changes in leukocyte survival and phagocytosis: a comparative study in bovine and buffalo leukocytes

“…In the last years, much research has been carried out to study heat stress in livestock and investigate the effects of increased global temperatures on the health and welfare of farm animals. Based on mathematical models, the global average temperature would rise to an estimated 3.28°C (2.46-4.10°C) above its pre-industrial level by 2,100 (1). Several studies have shown that high environmental temperature negatively affects health and biological functions of dairy cows, inducing reduced milk production and reproductive performances (2)(3)(4)(5).…”

“…The trial was carried out from March to June when animals were not exposed to heat stress conditions. Meteorological records from the city of Monterotondo (Italy) 1 were used to collect data on temperature and humidity during blood sampling. The average monthly temperature ranged from a minimum temperature of 12.05°C to a maximum temperature of 22.52°C.…”

Impact of Climate Change on International Tourism Evidence from Baltic Sea Countries

“…It is considered one of the biggest risks that humanity will face in the near future [7]. Climate change has a high inertia-even if GHG emissions had generally been constant in the last decade [8], climate change would continue, and the global temperature would increase by around 3.28 °C by the end of the century [9]. Average temperatures are rising, and more frequently, extreme weather events can be observed.…”