Data-driven surrogate modeling of high-resolution sea-ice thickness in the Arctic

Abstract

Abstract. A novel generation of sea-ice models with Elasto-Brittle rheologies, such as neXtSIM, can represent sea-ice processes with an unprecedented accuracy at the mesoscale, for resolutions of around 10 km. As these models are computationally expensive, we introduce supervised deep learning techniques for surrogate modeling of the sea-ice thickness from neXtSIM simulations. We adapt a convolutional UNet architecture to an Arctic-wide setup by taking the land-sea mask with partial convolutions into account. Trained to emulate the sea-ice thickness on a lead time of 12 hours, the neural network can be iteratively applied to predictions up to a year. The improvements of the surrogate model over a persistence forecast prevail from 12 hours to roughly a year, with improvements of up to 50 % in the forecast error. The predictability of the sea-ice thickness measured against a daily climatology additionally lays by around 8 months. By using atmospheric forcings as additional input, the surrogate model can represent advective and thermodynamical processes, which influence the sea-ice thickness and the growth and melting therein. While iterating, the surrogate model experiences diffusive processes, which result into a loss of fine-scale structures. However, this smoothing increases the coherence of large-scale features and hereby the stability of the model. Therefore, based on these results, we see a huge potential for surrogate modelling of state-of-art sea-ice models with neural networks.