Data learning and expert judgment in a Bayesian belief network for aiding human reliability assessment in offshore decommissioning risk assessment

Fam, Mei Ling; Konovessis, Dimitrios; He, Xuhong; Ong, Lin Seng

doi:10.1016/j.joes.2020.09.001

Cited by 10 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 5 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…These results are consistent with the phenomenon that the SRMS can operate but is not efficient in reality. A value at 75–85% of the life cycle (

) that is not 0 also shows that there is a large error in the traditional use of a detection value of 0 to represent the failure of the risk mitigation system [ 46 ]. By comparing the fitting results of the three common curves in Figure 14 , it can be seen that the curve fitting can better express the effectiveness degradation regulation of the SRMS.…”

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

A Model to Evaluate the Effectiveness of the Maritime Shipping Risk Mitigation System by Entropy-Based Capability Degradation Analysis

Jun

Qiao

2022

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Accurate evaluation of the risk mitigation status of navigating ships is essential for guaranteeing navigational safety. This research mainly focuses on the feasibility and accuracy of evaluating the real effectiveness of a risk mitigation system for navigating ships, including addressing the problem of immeasurableness for risk mitigation capability and determining the degradation regulation of risk mitigation capability over time. The proposed method to solve the problem is an effectiveness evaluation model based on the capability perspective, composed of a capability measurement algorithm based on entropy theory and capability degradation regulation analysis based on numerical process fitting. First, combined with the theoretical framework of a comprehensive defence system, the risk mitigation system designed for navigating ships is reconstructed based on capability building. Second, using a numerical fitting method, the degradation regulation of risk mitigation capability with time is obtained to improve the accuracy of the dynamic evaluation. Finally, referring to entropy theory, the uncertainty of capability is calculated, and then the model is constructed based on this uncertainty to realize the effectiveness evaluation from a capability perspective. The results obtained in an application test of the proposed model indicate that using the entropy of capability can realize an accurate effectiveness evaluation of a risk mitigation system for navigating ships, with a 9% improvement in accuracy, and the Weibull curve fitting is more consistent with capability degradation regulation, with a signification level of 2.5%. The proposed model provides a new path for evaluating the effectiveness of a risk mitigation system for navigating ships from the entropy of capability, and compared with the traditional probabilistic method, the model is more realistic and accurate in actual applications.

show abstract

“…These results are consistent with the phenomenon that the SRMS can operate but is not efficient in reality. A value at 75–85% of the life cycle (

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

A Model to Evaluate the Effectiveness of the Maritime Shipping Risk Mitigation System by Entropy-Based Capability Degradation Analysis

Jun

Qiao

2022

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

ALARP demonstration in management of change using quantitative Bowtie analysis risk assessment tool for an offshore gas platform

Aziz

Said

2022

Process Safety Progress

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this study, a framework for a quantitative Bowtie analysis based on the layer of protection analysis (LOPA) approach in the management of change (MOC) process flow was developed. The proposed tool can be used as a quantitative risk analysis method in supporting decisions when layers of protection or safeguards are unavailable. The proposed tool can quantify the frequency of the causes of a particular hazard via Fault Tree Analysis and identify the multiple consequences of the impact of the hazards with quantitative end events for risk analysis. The practicality of the proposed tool was demonstrated in a selected case study from the MOC database from Company A's offshore gas platform, where the consequences and impacts of the hazards to the people, environment, assets, and reputation were assessed. The LOPA quantification was introduced into the Bowtie diagram using a reliability database to determine the failure rates and probability of failure of the affected equipment. The risk tolerance level was subsequently determined.The outputs of risk analysis from the proposed quantitative Bowtie were then compared with the previous qualitative risk evaluation of the selected case study.Potential opportunities for further use of the proposed quantitative Bowtie tool were recommended.

show abstract

A Review of Research Methods on Decision Support System Offshore Platform Decommissioning

Sidiq,

Silvianita,

Utomo

2024

Advances in Civil Engineering Materials

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Data learning and expert judgment in a Bayesian belief network for aiding human reliability assessment in offshore decommissioning risk assessment

Cited by 10 publications

References 5 publications

A Model to Evaluate the Effectiveness of the Maritime Shipping Risk Mitigation System by Entropy-Based Capability Degradation Analysis

A Model to Evaluate the Effectiveness of the Maritime Shipping Risk Mitigation System by Entropy-Based Capability Degradation Analysis

ALARP demonstration in management of change using quantitative Bowtie analysis risk assessment tool for an offshore gas platform

A Review of Research Methods on Decision Support System Offshore Platform Decommissioning

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About