Standard monitoring within a gas-turbine based cogeneration system includes key flow rates, temperatures, pressures and turbine vibration. These standard measurements can be enhanced with continuous emissions monitoring to help pinpoint system problems. A combination of these measurements, a fast prediction model and data reconciliation constitute an improved monitoring and diagnostic tool that can quantitatively predict the existence of turbine problems (for example, damaged combustor nozzles) even when standard turbine monitoring indicates no problems exist.