ABSTRACT. Boaretto et al. (2005) published 68 radiocarbon dates relating to 30 samples from 10 Iron Age sites in Israel as part of their Early Iron Age Dating Project. Though the main goal of their paper was an interlaboratory comparison, they also presented results of Bayesian models, calculating the transition from Iron Age I to Iron Age II in Israel to be about 900 BCE instead of the conventional date of about 1000 BCE. Since this date has great importance for all of Eastern Mediterranean archaeology, in this paper we examine the results in light of the dates published in the above-mentioned article. Our paper was revised in light of new data and interpretations published by Sharon et al. (2007). Figure 4 indicates that the transition between Iron I and II probably occurred between these above-mentioned destruction events and the dates achieved in our Models C2 or C3, namely during the first half of the 10th century BCE.This study emphasizes the sensitivity of Bayesian models to outliers, and for reducing or adding dates from the models. This sensitivity should be taken into account when using Bayesian models for interpreting radiometric dates in relation to subtle chronological questions in historical periods.
Abbreviations used in this paper:GrA: samples measured at the Centre for Isotope Research (CIO), University of Groningen (the Netherlands) by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS).GrN: samples measured at the CIO, University of Groningen using proportional gas counting.HC: High Chronology. Meaning the conventional chronology as presented in Stern (1993), utilized by Mazar (1990) and others; Iron I: 1200-1000 BCE; Iron IIA: 1000-900; Iron IIB: 900-700.LC: Low Chronology, as suggested by Finkelstein (1996) and elaborated by Sharon (2001, 2003). The LC dates the transition between the Iron I to Iron II to about 900 BCE and the transition between Iron IIA and Iron IIB to about 800 BCE.LSC: samples prepared and measured at Rehovot (Israel) in liquid scintillation counters, followed by the sample number of the Early Iron Age Dating Project.
MCC: