Day‐to‐day temperature variability trends in 160‐ to 275‐year‐long European instrumental records

Abstract

Abstract. Day-to-day temperature variability is investigated in eight European series of daily mean temperatures beginning between 1722 and 183 3. Eight statistical measures of day-today temperature variability are compared. The intramonthly standard deviation of daily temperature anomalies is found to be a good measure. The absolute change in temperature anomaly from one day to the next is sensitive to changes in observational procedures and is suggested as a diagnostic tool for identification of inhomogeneities in instrumental temperature series. Because many changes in observational procedures have taken place, quantitative estimates of trends in day-to-day variability, based on all series, could only be calculated for 1880-1998. A trend analysis over this period indicates an increase by 5% in southwest Europe, 0 to -5% change in the northwest, and a decrease by 5 to 10% in northeast Europe. On a longer time perspective, day-to-day temperature variability in winter, spring, and autumn in northern Europe has decreased over the last 200-250 years. The frequency of extremely cold •vinter days in northern Europe •vas lower in the twentieth century than in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Day-to-day temperature variability in •vinter in northern Europe was negatively correlated with a North Atlantic Oscillation index in the period 1826-1997, but some other factor must also have contributed to the long-term variability decrease. More long daily temperature series, and development ofhomogenization methods for such data, are needed for an improved knowledge of long-term changes in day-to-day temperature variability.

Changes in seasonal and annual high‐frequency air temperature variability in the Arctic from 1951 to 1990

“…In reality, we rather observe mixed and insignificant changes (e.g. see figure 1 in Karl et al (1995), figure 4 in Plummer (1996), figures 4, 5 and 8 in Moberg et al (2000) or figures 2-7 in Przybylak (2000a)). More recently Collins et al (2000) have found that most Australian stations studied revealed decreasing trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperature variability from 1957 to 1996.…”

“…The majority of them focused on air temperature (e.g. Parker et al, 1992Parker et al, , 1994Karl et al, 1995;Plummer, 1996;Przybylak, 1996Przybylak, , 1999Przybylak, , 2000aMichaels et al, 1998;Jones, 1999;Collins et al, 2000;Moberg et al, 2000). Our knowledge during the last decade has grown significantly, but it is still far from complete.…”

Singular spectrum analysis of Baltic Sea ice conditions and large‐scale atmospheric patterns since 1708

“…There are also several excellent records of daily surface air temperature (SAT) time series from the region extending over a similar period of time. Considerable evidence suggests that large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns are significantly correlated with multi-year and decadal SAT (Chen and Hellsr6m, 1999;Moberg et al, 2000) and ice conditions in the Baltic region (Jevrejeva, 2001). In average and mild winters, warm air masses associated with westerly moving cyclones from the Atlantic dominate the Baltic climate.…”

Thermal log analysis for recognition of ground surface temperature change and water movements

“…At all meteorological stations temperature oscillations are highly variable, warming and cooling trends often alternating. Moreover, our analysis shows a slight decrease in temperature variability, which is common in many SAT series of the Northern Hemisphere (Karl et al, 1995;Moberg et al, 2000;. Figure 6 shows the interannual variation and trend of the average temperature for the Florence and Genoa time series.…”