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Nature‐inclusive scenarios of the future can help address numerous societal challenges related to soil health. As nature‐inclusive scenarios imply sustainable management of natural systems and resources, land use and soil health are assumed to be mutually beneficial in such scenarios. However, the interplay between nature‐inclusive land use scenarios and soil health has never been modelled using digital soil mapping. We predicted soil organic matter (SOM), an important indicator of soil health, in 2050, based on a recently developed nature‐inclusive scenario and machine learning in 3D space and time in the Netherlands. By deriving dynamic covariates related to land use and the occurrence of peat for 2050, we predicted SOM and its uncertainty in 2050 and assessed SOM changes between 2022 and 2050 from 0 to 2 m depth at 25 m resolution. We found little changes in the majority of mineral soils. However, SOM decreases of up to 5% were predicted in grasslands used for animal‐based production systems in 2022, which transitioned into croplands for plant‐based production systems by 2050. Although increases up to 25% SOM were predicted between 0 and 40 cm depth in rewetted peatlands, even larger decreases, on reclaimed land even surpassing 25% SOM, were predicted on non‐rewetted land in peat layers below 40 cm depth. There were several limitations to our approach, mostly due to predicting future trends based on historic data. Furthermore, nuanced nature‐inclusive practices, such as the adoption of agroecological farming methods, were too complex to incorporate in the model and would likely affect SOM spatial variability. Nonetheless, 3D‐mapping of SOM in 2050 created new insights and raised important questions related to soil health behind nature‐inclusive scenarios. Using machine learning explicit in 3D space and time to predict the impact of future scenarios on soil health is a useful tool for facilitating societal discussion, aiding policy making and promoting transformative change.
Nature‐inclusive scenarios of the future can help address numerous societal challenges related to soil health. As nature‐inclusive scenarios imply sustainable management of natural systems and resources, land use and soil health are assumed to be mutually beneficial in such scenarios. However, the interplay between nature‐inclusive land use scenarios and soil health has never been modelled using digital soil mapping. We predicted soil organic matter (SOM), an important indicator of soil health, in 2050, based on a recently developed nature‐inclusive scenario and machine learning in 3D space and time in the Netherlands. By deriving dynamic covariates related to land use and the occurrence of peat for 2050, we predicted SOM and its uncertainty in 2050 and assessed SOM changes between 2022 and 2050 from 0 to 2 m depth at 25 m resolution. We found little changes in the majority of mineral soils. However, SOM decreases of up to 5% were predicted in grasslands used for animal‐based production systems in 2022, which transitioned into croplands for plant‐based production systems by 2050. Although increases up to 25% SOM were predicted between 0 and 40 cm depth in rewetted peatlands, even larger decreases, on reclaimed land even surpassing 25% SOM, were predicted on non‐rewetted land in peat layers below 40 cm depth. There were several limitations to our approach, mostly due to predicting future trends based on historic data. Furthermore, nuanced nature‐inclusive practices, such as the adoption of agroecological farming methods, were too complex to incorporate in the model and would likely affect SOM spatial variability. Nonetheless, 3D‐mapping of SOM in 2050 created new insights and raised important questions related to soil health behind nature‐inclusive scenarios. Using machine learning explicit in 3D space and time to predict the impact of future scenarios on soil health is a useful tool for facilitating societal discussion, aiding policy making and promoting transformative change.
Abstract. In response to the growing societal awareness of the critical role of healthy soils, there has been an increasing demand for accurate and high-resolution soil information to inform national policies and support sustainable land management decisions. Despite advancements in digital soil mapping and initiatives like GlobalSoilMap, quantifying soil variability and its uncertainty across space, depth and time remains a challenge. Therefore, maps of key soil properties are often still missing on a national scale, which is also the case in the Netherlands. To meet this challenge and fill this data gap, we introduce BIS-4D, a high-resolution soil modeling and mapping platform for the Netherlands. BIS-4D delivers maps of soil texture (clay, silt and sand content), bulk density, pH, total nitrogen, oxalate-extractable phosphorus, cation exchange capacity and their uncertainties at 25 m resolution between 0 and 2 m depth in 3D space. Additionally, it provides maps of soil organic matter and its uncertainty in 3D space and time between 1953 and 2023 at the same resolution and depth range. The statistical model uses machine learning informed by soil observations amounting to between 3815 and 855 950, depending on the soil property, and 366 environmental covariates. We assess the accuracy of mean and median predictions using design-based statistical inference of a probability sample and location-grouped 10-fold cross validation (CV) and prediction uncertainty using the prediction interval coverage probability. We found that the accuracy of clay, sand and pH maps was the highest, with the model efficiency coefficient (MEC) ranging between 0.6 and 0.92 depending on depth. Silt, bulk density, soil organic matter, total nitrogen and cation exchange capacity (MEC of 0.27 to 0.78), and especially oxalate-extractable phosphorus (MEC of −0.11 to 0.38) were more difficult to predict. One of the main limitations of BIS-4D is that prediction maps cannot be used to quantify the uncertainty in spatial aggregates. We provide an example of good practice to help users decide whether BIS-4D is suitable for their intended purpose. An overview of all maps and their uncertainties can be found in the Supplement. Openly available code and input data enhance reproducibility and help with future updates. BIS-4D prediction maps can be readily downloaded at https://doi.org/10.4121/0c934ac6-2e95-4422-8360-d3a802766c71 (Helfenstein et al., 2024a). BIS-4D fills the previous data gap of the national-scale GlobalSoilMap product in the Netherlands and will hopefully facilitate the inclusion of soil spatial variability as a routine and integral part of decision support systems.
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