Dealing with uncertainty in design of port infrastructure systems

Taneja, P.; Ligteringen, H.; Schuylenburg, M. van

doi:10.1109/infra.2008.5439635

Cited by 6 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Based on Table 7, the standard categories of risk levels can be evaluated using Equation 11, as follows:…”

Section: : Definition Of Linguistic Variables Used For Risk Evaluatiomentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…computer and logistics systems and ICT, handling equipment, warehouses, etc. ), but also the operating procedures, management practices and complex interactions with the society to facilitate trade and the transfer of goods and services for economic development [11].Maritime-related activities are operated at seaports which are located within densely populated and industrial locations that accommodate chemicals and weapons in their storage facilities [12]. The flexibility in the flows of vessels and large amounts of bulk cargoes within these areas has created a huge amount of concern about their integrity because of the numerous opportunities for them to be tampered with for terrorism-related acts or sabotage.Additionally, their operations can be marred by several organisational and environmental risks that range from…”

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confidence: 99%

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An integrated fuzzy risk assessment for seaport operations

et al. 2014

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An integrated fuzzy risk assessment for seaport operations http://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/1787/ Article LJMU has developed LJMU Research Online for users to access the research output of the University more effectively.Abstract Seaport operations are characterised by high levels of uncertainty, as a result their risk evaluation is a very challenging task. Much of the available data associated with the system's operations is uncertain and ambiguous, requiring a flexible yet robust approach of handling both quantitative and qualitative data as well as a means of updating existing information as new data becomes available. Conventional risk modelling approaches are considered to be inadequate due to the lack of flexibility and inappropriate structure for addressing the system's risks. This paper proposes a novel fuzzy risk assessment approach to facilitating the treatment of uncertainties in seaport operations and to optimize its performance effectiveness in a systematic manner. The methodology consists of a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process, an evidential reasoning (ER) approach, fuzzy set theory and expected utility. The fuzzy analytical hierarchy process is used to analyse the complex structure of seaport operations and determine the weights of risk factors while ER is used to synthesise them. The methodology provides a robust mathematical framework for collaborative modelling of the system and allows for a step by step analysis of the system in a systematic manner. It is envisaged that the proposed approach could provide managers and infrastructure analysts a flexible tool to enhance the resilience of the system in a systematic manner. Keywords: Seaport operations; evidential reasoning approach; fuzzy set theory; fuzzy analytical hierarchy process 2. Literature Review CMI systems are faced with high operational constraints due to the dynamic interactions among their interrelated components. The level of interdependences and complexity of the system's operations can be acknowledged through its description by the US Department of Homeland Security "as all areas and things of, on, under, relating to, adjacent to, or bordering on a sea, ocean, or other navigable waterway, including all maritime related activities, infrastructure, people, cargo, vessels and other conveyances" [8]. Analysing the systems in terms of their interdependences which include infrastructure characteristics, operational relationships, environmental impacts, technical efficiency, failure types and state of operation provides insight into their complexity, enabling collaborative modelling to be undertaken. Modern seaports, which are an integral component of CMI systems, focus their operations on continuous handling of flows and efficient transport. Meersman [9], as shown in Figure 1, revealed that these systems progressed from performing cargo handling, stacking and distribution functions to being a complex transportation hub in logistic chains. A vessel operator controls a fleet of vessels with a set of characteristics; the land si...

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“…Based on Table 7, the standard categories of risk levels can be evaluated using Equation 11, as follows:…”

Section: : Definition Of Linguistic Variables Used For Risk Evaluatiomentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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An integrated fuzzy risk assessment for seaport operations

et al. 2014

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“…Financial viability and infrastructure-based investments should be supported by potential (cargo) demands (De Langen et al, 2012). Appropriate investment in port capacity, based on the promising cargos, helps to win market share and strengthen the competitive position of the port (Taneja et al, 2010). On the other hand, inaccurate statements about the likely course of demand lead to an improper development plan (Peng and Chu, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mutual information analysis of the factors influencing port throughput

Eskafi

Kowsari

Dastgheib

et al. 2020

MABR

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Purpose Port throughput analysis is a challenging task, as it consists of intertwined interactions between a variety of cargos and numerous influencing factors. This study aims to propose a quantitative method to facilitate port throughput analysis by identification of important cargos and key macroeconomic variables. Design/methodology/approach Mutual information is applied to measure the linear and nonlinear correlation among variables. The method gives a unique measure of dependence between two variables by quantifying the amount of information held in one variable through another variable. Findings This study uses the mutual information to the Port of Isafjordur in Iceland to underpin the port throughput analysis. The results show that marine products are the main export cargo, whereas most imports are fuel oil, industrial materials and marine product. The aggregation of these cargos, handled in the port, meaningfully determines the non-containerized port throughput. The relation between non-containerized export and the national gross domestic product (GDP) is relatively high. However, non-containerized import is mostly related to the world GDP. The non-containerized throughput shows a strong relation to the national GDP. Furthermore, the results reveal that the volume of national export trade is the key influencing macroeconomic variable to the containerized throughput. Originality/value Application of the mutual information in port throughput analysis effectively reduces epistemic uncertainty in the identification of important cargos and key influencing macroeconomic variables. Thus, it increases the reliability of the port throughput forecast.

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“…logistics, ICT, handling equipment, warehouses, etc. ), iii) the operating procedures, iv) management practices, v) complex interactions with the society to facilitate trade, and vi) the transfer of goods and services for economic development (Taneja et al, 2010).…”

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Experiments for PHM: Needs, developments and challenges

Li¹,

Liu²,

Kang³

et al. 2014

Safety and Reliability: Methodology and Applications

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Much of the available data associated with seaport operations is uncertain and ambiguous, requiring an approach capable of handling both quantitative and qualitative information. Conventional risk modelling approaches are considered to be inadequate in many circumstances due to the lack of flexibility and an inappropriate structure for addressing the system's risks. This paper proposes a flexible risk assessment approach to facilitating the treatment of uncertainties in seaport operations in a systematic manner. The methodology consists of a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process, an Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach, and fuzzy set theory. The fuzzy analytical hierarchy process is used to analyse the complex structure of seaport operations and determine the weights of significant risk factors while ER is used to synthesise them. The methodology provides a framework for collaborative modelling of the system and allows for a step by step analysis. It could provide managers and infrastructure analysts with a flexible tool in order to enhance the resilience of the seaport system.(FMECA) and Bow-Tie (BT) have been widely used in analysis of critical systems and have contributed greatly to the literature of risk analysis. The aforementioned approaches have some drawbacks which affect their applications. The use of traditional risk assessment approaches to deal with newly arising hazards and threats (e.g. potential terrorist attacks) to maritime infrastructure reveals two major challenges: i) the lack of capability to process diverse data suitable for input into a risk inference mechanism, and ii) the lack of capability to analyse the interactive dependence between risk factors (Yang et al., 2009).One realistic way to analyse a system with unavailable data is to employ subjective assessment using the combination of fuzzy logic and Evidential Reasoning (ER). Compared to the traditional fuzzy inference mechanism (i.e. max-min fuzzy operations), an ER approach has the advantage of avoiding the loss of useful information in its inference processes; hence, it can be suitable for modelling complex systems.The insufficiency of quantitative risk assessment in the maritime-related literature together with the vision to establish a secure and resilient SCMI system has resulted in a need for an integrated risk assessment methodology capable of tackling the uncertainties associated with a system's operation (John, 2013). This paper is organised as follows. Section 2 reviews the existing literature on SCMI systems, and discusses the major risk factors associated with seaport operations. Sections 3 and 4 highlight the decision making techniques that are used for

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Dealing with uncertainty in design of port infrastructure systems

Cited by 6 publications

References 18 publications

An integrated fuzzy risk assessment for seaport operations

An integrated fuzzy risk assessment for seaport operations

Mutual information analysis of the factors influencing port throughput

Experiments for PHM: Needs, developments and challenges

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