Dealing with uncertainty in design of port infrastructure systems

Taneja, P.; Ligteringen, H.; Schuylenburg, M. van

doi:10.1504/jdr.2010.032073

Cited by 11 publications

(21 citation statements)

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“…The outer bound (shaded area indicating the 99% confidence interval) surpasses the maximum values of 480 and the minimum value accounts for almost 215 TEU. Higher market uncertainty requires higher flexibility in port infrastructure, operation, and services (Taneja et al 2010;Wang et al 2019). Thus, this range of port throughput forecasts with confidence intervals provides useful information to decision-makers and port planners to develop flexibility and create a buffer in port capacity planning to satisfy changing and uncertain future demand (Notteboom and Haralambides 2020).…”

Section: Figmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Port throughput forecasting plays an important role in port capacity planning and management. This is due to the long technical life of indivisibles and the irreversible nature of port infrastructure investments (Taneja et al 2010). Once the infrastructure is in place, the characteristics of the port are determined for a long period (Van Dorsser et al 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A model for port throughput forecasting using Bayesian estimation

et al. 2021

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Capacity plays a crucial role in a port's competitive position and the growth of its market share. An investment decision to provide new port capacity should be supported by a growing demand for port services. However, port demand is volatile and uncertain in an increasingly competitive market environment. Also, forecasting models themselves are associated with epistemic uncertainty due to model and parameter uncertainties. This paper applies a Bayesian statistical method to forecast the annual throughput of the multipurpose Port of Isafjordur in Iceland. Model uncertainties are thus taken into account, while parameter uncertainties are handled by selecting influencing macroeconomic variables based on mutual information analysis. The presented model has an adaptive capability as new information becomes available. Our method results in a range of port throughput forecasts, in addition to a point estimate, and it also accounts for epistemic uncertainty, thus increasing the reliability of forecasts. Our results provide support for informed decision-making in capacity planning and management. Our forecasts show a constant linear growth of containerized throughput the period 2020-2025. Noncontainerized throughput declines rapidly over the same period.

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Section: Figmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A model for port throughput forecasting using Bayesian estimation

et al. 2021

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“…In port development projects, decision makers are being faced with fast-paced, transformative, and often unexpected changes. The long technical lifetime of (mostly) indivisible port infrastructure, huge capital investments with a long payback period, their changing function (e.g., transport, industrial, distribution), and changes in type and volume of cargos face decision makers with many uncertainties in the planning process (Taneja, Ligteringen, and Van Schuylenburg 2010). Decision making under uncertainty is challenging.…”

Section: Developments In the Port Sectorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Adaptive port planning (APP) has attracted attention in recent years as a method to deal with the uncertainties ports face and to fulfil the objectives of port stakeholders (Eskafi et al 2020c). APP delivers robust solutions by integrating uncertainty and flexibility into the planning process (Taneja, Ligteringen, and Van Schuylenburg 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Financial viability and infrastructure-based investments should be supported by potential (cargo) demands (De Langen, Van Meijeren, and Tavasszy 2012). Appropriate investment in port capacity, based on the promising cargos, helps to win market share and strengthen the competitive position of the port (Taneja, Ligteringen, and Van Schuylenburg 2010). On the other hand, inaccurate statements about the likely course of demand lead to an improper development plan (Peng and Chu 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Framework for Dealing with Uncertainty in the Port Planning Process

Eskafi

Dastgheib

Taneja

et al. 2021

J. Waterway, Port, Coastal, Ocean Eng.

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Ports have always been evolving to satisfy the new or changing demands of stakeholders. In this unstable world, ports as dynamic systems are developed under a high degree of uncertainty. Furthermore, black-swan events, for instance, the financial crisis in 2008, the avalanche in Flateyri (Iceland) in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021 make successful port planning a challenging task. Indeed, the ever-increasing complexity of a port system and its long technical lifetime make uncertainty considerations inevitable in the planning process. Therefore, this research presents a structured framework to deal with uncertainties, including opportunities and vulnerabilities, in the port planning process. To this end, a structured stakeholder analysis is performed to effectively and timely engage stakeholders in the planning process. Fuzzy logic 3-dimensional decision surface is used to identify the salient stakeholders. Subsequently, the success of the future port is defined in terms of the specific objectives of the stakeholders. To develop this definition, a problem structuring method and fuzzy multi-attribute group decision-making method are synthesized. Then, a port throughput forecast is conducted that accounts for epistemic uncertainty, including model and parameters uncertainties, and thus increases the reliability of forecast results. The method identifies the influencing macroeconomic variables on port throughput by mutual information and then applies the Bayesian statistical method to forecast the port throughput. Effective actions are planned to seize opportunities and manage vulnerabilities that manifest in the projected lifetime. Therefore, the port can adapt or better withstand the vagaries of the future. The nonlinearity of dealing with uncertainty by application of the framework provides a robust and better plan toward its success. The framework supports decision making under uncertainty and facilitates adaptive port planning. The framework is applied to the Ports of Isafjordur Network in Iceland. The results indicate that the uncertainties mainly present opportunities in the short-time horizon, while in the middle-time horizon the port network is confronted with multiple vulnerabilities.

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Decisions to Invest in Waterway Terminals for Oil and Oil Products

Muchinelli

Blank

Valladão

et al. 2019

Operations Management for Social Good

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AgradecimentosA Deus, pelo encorajamento em todos os momentos da minha vida. À Petrobras, pelo incentivo que dá ao aperfeiçoamento de seus funcionários.À minha mãe, Denise, por ter me proporcionado acesso à Educação.Ao meu marido, Bruno, pelo apoio incondicional que me dá nestes dezessete anos de relacionamento e, principalmente, por me ajudar, ao longo dos últimos anos, a não perder a autoconfiança, diante do meu transtorno de ansiedade e da minha deficiência auditiva.À minha nova colega, Professora Frances, por toda atenção e orientação que me deu durante quase um ano, por ter compartilhado comigo um pouco do seu conhecimento em avaliação de investimentos, por todas as dicas preciosas em inúmeras horas de Skype e pelo carinho de sempre.Aos colegas de trabalho, Angelo, por ter me proporcionado acesso à base de dados de sobreestadia do Terminal de São Sebastião, e Quioto, por ter me ajudado com a programação da área São Paulo em momentos decisivos na etapa final desta jornada.Aos colegas de turma, Giuseppe, Rodrigo e Danilo, por terem tornado muitos momentos mais leves neste retorno à vida acadêmica.Aos membros da banca, por todas as contribuições.A Deus, novamente, por ter me abençoado com o maior presente que eu poderia receber por concluir este Mestrado: meu filho, Otto.

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Dealing with uncertainty in design of port infrastructure systems

Cited by 11 publications

References 0 publications

A model for port throughput forecasting using Bayesian estimation

A model for port throughput forecasting using Bayesian estimation

Framework for Dealing with Uncertainty in the Port Planning Process

Decisions to Invest in Waterway Terminals for Oil and Oil Products

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