Deathdaily: A Python Package Index for predicting the number of daily COVID-19 deaths

Abstract

This paper presents a new open-source program called deathdaily for predicting the number of daily COVID-19 deaths in the next 7 days. The predictions can be used by policymakers to determine whether current policies should be strengthened/mitigated or new policies should be challenged to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. Although vaccines have been mitigating the pandemic initially, the recent resurgence with new variants has been observed in many vaccinated countries. This paper shows how to use deathdaily to detect symptoms of resurgence. The proposed deathdaily is available in public and can be installed by a Python package manager PyPI. The deathdaily has been downloaded by 15,964 users worldwide, according to https://pepy.tech/project/deathdaily . The fact shows that the applicability, practicality, and usefulness of the proposed program have been duly evaluated.

A herd immunity approach to the COVID-19 pandemic?

“…The first tool, deathdaily [ 1 ] was used to investigate whether vaccinated countries with satisfied or nearly satisfied herd immunity threshold can mitigate the pandemic or not. Continuous daily deaths are a good indicator of policy outcomes.…”

“…The deathdaily [ 1 ]. is available in public and can be easily installed by PyPI package for predicting the number of daily deaths in the next seven days.…”

“…Unless one of the five reasons for the herd immunity model is met, the promise of herd immunity will not be fulfilled. Two tools such as deathdaily [ 1 ] and scorecovid [ 2 ] will be introduced to solve two conditions of herd immunity.…”

“…Herd immunity or population immunity is a concept in which a population can be protected from a virus if enough people possess immunity [ 3 ]. Current accepted estimates for the “herd immunity threshold” range from 60–90% of the population [ 1 ].…”

“…The first goal of this paper is to investigate whether satisfying herd immunity threshold with a pharmacological approach can mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic or not. The first tool, deathdaily [ 1 ] was used to investigate Aschwanden’s first condition. In other words, the tool showed that the pharmacological approach alone cannot mitigate the pandemic.…”