Decadal climate variability in the Mediterranean region: roles of large-scale forcings and regional processes

Mariotti, Annarita; Dell’Aquila, Alessandro

doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1056-7

Cited by 137 publications

(133 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…The annual 99th percentile shows a significant interannual variability with basin averaged values ranging from 25.1 • C in 1984 to 29.3 • C in 2003 ( Figure 3A). Also, a multidecadal variability is also apparent with a minimum in the 70's and a significant increase since the mid 80's until present, in good agreement with the multidecadal change of the mean SST already reported by Mariotti and Dell'Aquila (2012). Concerning the heat wave intensity, there is also a strong interannual variability (standard deviation of 20 • C degree-days) with strong heat wave events reaching up to 100, 60, and 50 • C degree-days in 2003, 2009, and 1994, respectively ( Figure 3B).…”

Section: Warming Rates In the Mediterranean: Observations And Model Hsupporting

confidence: 90%

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Footprints of climate change on Mediterranean Sea biota

et al. 2015

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The Mediterranean Sea ranks among the ocean regions warming fastest. There is evidence for impacts of climate change on marine Mediterranean organisms but a quantitative assessment is lacking. We compiled the impacts of warming reported in the literature to provide a quantitative assessment for the Mediterranean Sea. During the last three decades the summer surface temperature has increased 1.15 • C. Strong heat wave events have occurred in years 1994, 2003, and 2009. Impacts of warming are evident on growth, survival, fertility, migration and phenology of pelagic and benthic organisms, from phytoplankton to marine vegetation, invertebrates and vertebrates. Overall, 50% of biological impacts in the Mediterranean Sea occur at summer surface temperature anomaly 4.5 • ≤ C and at summer surface temperature of 27.5 • C. The activation energy (geometric mean 1.58 ± 0.48 eV), the slope of the Arrhenius equation describing the temperature-dependence of biological processes, for the response of Mediterranean marine biota to warming reveals that these responses in the Mediterranean are far steepest than possibly explained by the direct effect of warming alone. The observations are biased toward the northern and western sectors of the basin, likely underestimating the impacts of warming in areas where warming is particularly intense.

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Section: Warming Rates In the Mediterranean: Observations And Model Hsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Mariotti and Dell'Aquila (2012) have shown that multidecadal variability of Mediterranean SST is highly correlated with AMO. AMO has been increasing during the last 40 years, which could explain an increase of about 0.10-0.15 • C decade −1 in the Mediterranean SST during that period.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Footprints of climate change on Mediterranean Sea biota

et al. 2015

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“…On the other hand, it is well known that the Mediterranean climate is submitted to the NAO 117 (Trigo et al, 2002;Lionello et al, 2006; López-Moreno et al, 2011) region, NAO plays a significant role on decadal variance in precipitation, especially for winter 121 (Mariotti and Dell'Aquila, 2012). Descriptions of the NAO dynamics and predictability can be 122 found in Jones et al (1997), Hurrell et al (2001), Fernández et al (2003 and Collette and 123 Ausloos (2004), among others.…”

Section: Wemoi 115 116mentioning

confidence: 99%

Complexity and predictability of the monthly Western Mediterranean Oscillation index

Lana

Burgueño

Martínez

et al. 2015

Intl Journal of Climatology

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19The complexity, predictability and predictive instability of the Western Mediterranean 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 The contents of the paper include a description of the WeMOi, its cumulative distribution 72 (Section 2), monofractal properties (Section 3) and multifractal characteristics derived from 73 the multifractal detrended fluctuaction analysis, MF-DFA, which is also succinctly described 74 (Section 4). A comparison of the mono-and multifractal properties for the WeMO, NAO and 75 AMO indices, and the validity of fGn series to simulate the WeMOi are presented in Section 5. 76Section 6 introduces results derived from the ARIMA process and the Conclusions Section 77 outlines the main WeMOi fractal features and reviews the autoregressive prediction results. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 P e e r R e v i e w O n l y The monthly Western Mediterranean Oscillation index, WeMOi 82The WeMOi was proposed by Martín-Vide and López-Bustins (2006) to detect atmospheric 83 circulation patterns related to rainfall shortage or excess affecting the eastern Iberian 84Peninsula López-Bustins et al., 2008; Gonzalez-Hidalgo et al., 2009), 85 being also used in other regional climatic applications (Azorín-Molina and Lopez-Bustins, 2008; 86 Sánchez-Lorenzo et al., 2009;Vicente-Serrano et al., 2009;Ouachani et al., 2013; El Kenawy et 87 al., 2013;Beranová and Kyselý, 2015;Ríos-Cornejo et al., 2015). (Figure 1b), strongly suggests that this decreasing tendency could be mainly 107 linked to the behaviour of WeMOi at spring and summer seasons. The cumulative distribution 108 of WeMOi (Figure 2) is Gaussian, the observations being kept within the 95% confidence bands 109 derived from the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (Benjamin and Cornell, 1970;Press et al., 1992). 110 Figure 3 represents WeMOi for several return periods, given in months, compared with 111 theoretic return values for a Gaussian distribution. Empiric values are also quite well described 112 by a logarithmic law, by taking as argument the return period (months). Taking into account 113 the symmetry of the Gaussian distribution, similar results would be obtained for negative 114 WeMOi. 115 116On the other hand, it is well known that the Mediterranean climate is submitted to the NAO 117 (Trigo et al., 2002;Lionello et al., 2006; López-Moreno et al., 2011) region, NAO plays a significant role on decadal variance in precipitation, especially...

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“…Recently, some new results reveal that both the summer NAO (SNAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) show variability at decadalinterdecadal timescale [Mariotti and Dell'Aquila, 2012] and the atmospheric signatures associated with them resemble a circumglobal structure [Bladé et al, 2011;Msadek et al, 2011]. However, the time expansion of H200 almost does not correlate to SNAO and AMO in the two epochs.…”

Section: Possible Reasons For the Interdecadal Change Of Cgtmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interdecadal change of the boreal summer circumglobal teleconnection (1958–2010)

Wang

Huang

et al. 2012

Geophysical Research Letters

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[1] The tropical-extratropical teleconnection during boreal summer is characterized by a circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern in the northern hemisphere (NH). Around the late 1970s, there was an abrupt change in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system over the NH and global tropics. This study found that the CGT has experienced a significant change since late 1970s. During the recent epoch , the major CGT centers weakened with pronounced changes over the North Atlantic and Europe. Partial correlation analysis of 200-hPa geopotential height and the NH summer monsoon heat sources indicates that the change of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall has a global impact on the CGT, whereas other NH summer monsoons (West African, western North Pacific, and North American) have only a regional modification to the CGT. The weakening of the CGT pattern in the recent epoch is a consequence of weakened coupling between ISM rainfall and midlatitude circulation, which results from the reduced interannual variability of ISM rainfall due to changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation properties. The large change of the CGT over the North Atlantic and Europe is attributed to a southward shift of upper-level westerlies and enhanced coupling to West African monsoon rainfall.

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Decadal climate variability in the Mediterranean region: roles of large-scale forcings and regional processes

Cited by 137 publications

References 48 publications

Footprints of climate change on Mediterranean Sea biota

Footprints of climate change on Mediterranean Sea biota

Complexity and predictability of the monthly Western Mediterranean Oscillation index

Interdecadal change of the boreal summer circumglobal teleconnection (1958–2010)

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