Decadal climate variability, water availability and cropping: the value of forecast information in South-Central Texas

Abstract

Decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena are ocean-based conditions that have climate influences persisting for a decade or more. Few studies have addressed the coupled agricultural and economic implications of these phenomena. Here, we investigate the economic value of DCV information in a South Central Texas case study along with the nature of possible adaptations to the information. To do this we first perform an econometric estimation of DCV impacts on regional crop yields and groundwater recharge. We then expand a regional economic and hydrological model to include DCV information. We find significant DCV impacts on regional aquifer recharge and crop yields for oats, dryland sorghum, and irrigated winter wheat. DCV information has substantial value with perfect information ranging from US$3.79-3.93 million yr-1 plus benefits for springflow protection, while a less perfect forecast is worth $1.47-1.89 million yr-1. We also find DCV adaptations involve changes in crop mix and water use.

Potential impacts of land use change on streamflow and groundwater resources under changing climate in the Flint River Basin, Georgia, United States

“…For instance, agriculture-related water pumping entities could utilize El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and/or decadal climate variability (DCV) information to adopt climate change adaptation strategies, e.g., climatetolerant crop, crop insurance, and provisions of adaptation financing (Fan et al 2017, Wang et al 2021. The relationship among hydrological variables, climate variables, and ENSO/DCV have been identified in existing studies by applying a percentile method (Cayan et al 1999, Sankarasubramanian andLall 2003), simulation (Mehta et al 2012), or regression-based methods (Jithitikulchai 2018, Huang et al 2020, Ding and McCarl 2021. In the future, these approaches can be tested relative to the methods adopted in this study.…”