Decadal fluctuations in the western Pacific recorded by long precipitation records in Taiwan

Huang, Wan‐Ru; Wang, S. Y.Simon; Guan, Biing T.

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3707-9

Cited by 15 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Previous meteorological studies show strong PDO‐driven decadal imprint on rainfall variability in Taiwan (e.g., J.‐M. Chen & Chen, 2011; Huang et al, 2017; Hung et al, 2004; Kao et al, 2018; Kuo et al, 2016) and south and east China (e.g., Chan & Zhou, 2005; X. Wu & Mao, 2017; Yu et al, 2014), as well as coral δ 18 O‐based rainfall and/or summer monsoon reconstructions from northern SCS and east China (e.g., Deng et al, 2013; Watanabe et al, 2014). Increased rainfall during warm PDO phases is attributed to large‐scale SST anomalies that induce formation of anomalous low‐level anticyclonic circulation southeast of Taiwan, enhancing moisture transport from the SCS to higher latitudes including Taiwan and southeastern China (J.‐M.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Coral Records at the Northern Edge of the Western Pacific Warm Pool Reveal Multiple Drivers of Sea Surface Temperature, Salinity, and Rainfall Variability Since the End of the Little Ice Age

Ramos

Goodkin

Fan

2020

Paleoceanog and Paleoclimatol

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Reconstructions of key climate parameters prior to anthropogenic influences serve to constrain decadal to multicentury natural climate variability. In the western Pacific region, relatively few reconstructions exist north of the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP), a region critical to global climate. In this study, we collected a coral core from Houbihu, southern Taiwan, and generated a 225-year reconstruction of annual and wintertime sea surface temperature, dry season sea surface salinity, and wet season rainfall records derived from paired Porites Sr/Ca and δ 18 O profiles extending back to the end of the Little Ice Age (1850 CE). Multidecadal sea surface temperature trends generally track regional surface temperature reconstructions, indicating the dominant influence of solar and volcanic radiative forcings. Reconstructed dry season sea surface salinity reflects an advection signal linked to the East Asian Winter Monsoon and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, both influencing variations in the Kuroshio Intrusion across the Luzon Strait. Reconstructed wet season rainfall, on the other hand, reveals influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the decadal variability of local and regional rainfall patterns. Relative to the late 1900s, our climate reconstructions document cooler and drier (high salinity and low rainfall) conditions during the end of the Little Ice Age, supporting other lines of evidence of a retracted WPWP region during this period. In the late 20th to early 21st century, our climate reconstructions record warming and freshening (low salinity and high rainfall) trends, highlighting the potential impact of anthropogenic forcing in the extension of the WPWP.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Coral Records at the Northern Edge of the Western Pacific Warm Pool Reveal Multiple Drivers of Sea Surface Temperature, Salinity, and Rainfall Variability Since the End of the Little Ice Age

Ramos

Goodkin

Fan

2020

Paleoceanog and Paleoclimatol

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“…remains an open question but there is increasing evidence that this is linked to the multidecadal variability in the strength of ENSO teleconnections to the extratropics (O'Reilly et al, 2017). For example, Huang et al (2018) report an interesting mid-century change in the observed relationship between quasi-decadal SST oscillations in the tropical West Pacific and the western subtropical North Pacific, a region of great importance for Rossby wave sources and the teleconnections into the Northern Hemisphere.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal Forecasts of the Twentieth Century

Weisheimer

Befort

MacLeod

et al. 2020

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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“…We would like to emphasise that whilst the inter‐decadal differences in NAO skill are, by themselves, only marginally statistically significant (Weisheimer et al, ), the variations in skill strongly co‐vary with statistics of the general circulation itself (examples of which can be found in e.g. Minobe, ; Hoerling et al, ; Derome et al, ; Fletcher and Saunders, ; Greatbatch and Jung, ; Douville et al, ; Hegerl et al, ; Huang et al, ) suggesting that such differences are indeed physically based. In particular, the temporal skill evolution of the NAO co‐varies with changes in the skill of the Pacific–North America (PNA) pattern that are highly statistically significant and relate to changes in the ENSO–North Pacific teleconnections (O'Reilly et al, ; O'Reilly, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?

Weisheimer

Decremer

MacLeod

et al. 2019

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Atmospheric seasonal predictability in winter over the Euro-Atlantic region is studied with an emphasis on the signal-to-noise paradox of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Seasonal hindcasts of the ECMWF model for the recent period show, in agreement with other studies, that correlation skill over Greenland and parts of the Arctic is higher than the signal-to-noise ratio implies. This leads to the paradoxical situation where the real world appears more predictable than the models suggest, with the forecast ensembles being overly dispersive (or underconfident). However, it is demonstrated that these conclusions are not supported by the diagnosed relationship between ensemble mean root-mean-square error (RMSE) and ensemble spread which indicates a slight under-dispersion (overconfidence). Furthermore, long atmospheric seasonal hindcasts suggest that over the 110-year period from 1900 to 2009 the ensemble system is well calibrated (neither overnor under-dispersive). The observed skill changed drastically in the middle of the twentieth century and paradoxical regions during more recent hindcast periods were strongly under-dispersive during mid-century decades. Due to non-stationarities of the climate system in the form of decadal variability, relatively short hindcasts are not sufficiently representative of longer-term behaviour. In addition, small hindcast sample size can lead to skill estimates, in particular of correlation measures, that are not robust. It is shown that the relative uncertainty due to small hindcast sample size is often larger for correlation-based than for RMSE-based diagnostics. Correlation-based measures like the RPC are shown to be highly sensitive to the strength of the predictable signal, implying that disentangling of physical deficiencies in the models on the one hand, and the effects of sampling uncertainty on the other hand, is difficult. Given the current lack of a causal physical mechanism to unravel the puzzle, our hypotheses of non-stationarity and sampling uncertainty provide simple yet plausible explanations for the paradox.

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Decadal fluctuations in the western Pacific recorded by long precipitation records in Taiwan

Cited by 15 publications

References 31 publications

Coral Records at the Northern Edge of the Western Pacific Warm Pool Reveal Multiple Drivers of Sea Surface Temperature, Salinity, and Rainfall Variability Since the End of the Little Ice Age

Coral Records at the Northern Edge of the Western Pacific Warm Pool Reveal Multiple Drivers of Sea Surface Temperature, Salinity, and Rainfall Variability Since the End of the Little Ice Age

Seasonal Forecasts of the Twentieth Century

How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?

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