Decadal Modulation of Precipitation Patterns over Eastern China by Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Yang, Qing; Ma, Zhuguo; Fan, Xiaohui; Yang, Zong‐Liang; Xu, Zhongfeng; Wu, Peili

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0793.1

Cited by 118 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…The PDO plays an important role in precipitation over eastern China and North America (Mantua et al, ; Barlow et al, ; Mantua and Hare, ; Chan and Zhou, ; Shen et al, ; Ma, ; Zhu et al, ; Yu, ; Chylek et al, ; Yu et al, ; Zhu et al, ; Si and Ding, ; Yang et al, ). Here, we first focus on the regression pattern of the summer precipitation onto the observation‐based PDO index and 20 CMIP5 climate models over eastern China (Figure ).…”

Section: The Model Performance Of the Pdo And Its Climatic Impactsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Comparison of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in climate model simulations and observations

Wei

Huang

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The ability of climate models to simulate the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and its global teleconnections is examined using the outputs of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models from historical experiments. It is shown that the global warming trend is reproduced by the models, but there is a considerable difference between the models in the PDO region. The standard deviation of detrended sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the models is similar to that of the observations, especially in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and the North Pacific, which are the regions closely associated with the PDO and El Nino‐Southern Oscillation. The globally averaged SSTA during 1900–1940 in the CMIP5 models and observations showed large divergence, which is mainly due to the SSTA in the PDO region. The most significant cycle of the PDO indexes in most of the models had a 60–80 years period, which is different from the observed PDO period (40–60 years). However, the models perform better for the spatial pattern of the PDO, and 90% of the spatial correlations between the models and observations of the spatial pattern of the PDO are above 0.8. In addition, the models can simulate the basic correlation between the PDO and Pacific SSTA variability, but most of them overestimate the relationship in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. The CMIP5 models are better at simulating the impact of the PDO on winter precipitation in southern North America but are less accurate in simulating summer precipitation in eastern China. This is probably because most of the models are not accurate in simulating the impacts of the PDO on the western Pacific subtropical high and the East Asian summer monsoon.

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Section: The Model Performance Of the Pdo And Its Climatic Impactsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Comparison of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in climate model simulations and observations

Wei

Huang

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…While previous studies (e.g., Huang et al, ) showed that the AMO has a significant influence over Inner Mongolia, our study based on dominance analysis shows that the relative dominance of the AMO is very small in this region as compared to that of the PDO, which indicates that the influence of the AMO through the Silk Route Teleconnection over Inner Mongolia is weaker than the influence of the PDO. Previous studies also showed that the positive phase of the AMO leads to the development of negative geopotential height anomalies over North China and positive geopotential height anomalies over East China, which leads to high rainfall in North China and low rainfall over East and South China regions (Si & Ding, ; Yang et al, ). In our study, the relative dominance of the AMO is found to be high for East China but low in North and South China, where the PDO shows the dominant influence (Figure a).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In East China, both the AMO and the PDO are found to have high relative dominance values (Figure a). While the positive phase of the AMO can increase the severity of droughts in East China (Si & Ding, ; Yang et al, ), the positive phase of the PDO can reduce the severity of droughts in this region via the PJ/EAP teleconnection (Qian & Zhou, ; Si & Ding, ; Zhang et al, ). Thus, the AMO and the PDO are likely to have opposing impacts on the drought severity in East China in the near future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multidecadal Changes in Meteorological Drought Severity and Their Drivers in Mainland China

Apurv

Wang

et al. 2019

JGR Atmospheres

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This study analyzes the multidecadal changes in the severity of extreme meteorological droughts at the regional scale in China during 1951–2017. Dominance analysis is applied to multiple linear regression models to quantify the relative influence of global warming and internal variability on the meteorological drought severity in nine climate regions of China to understand which drivers are the most significant for each region and how they are likely to influence the severity of droughts in the near future (10–20 years). The influence of internal variability is represented by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The PDO and global warming are found to have a stronger influence on the multidecadal variability of drought severity in China than the AMO. Global warming is found to be the more dominant driver of multidecadal variability of drought severity in the western parts of China, whereas the PDO is found to have a more dominant influence in the eastern parts of China. In the near future, global warming and the PDO are both likely to contribute to reduction of drought severity in Xinjiang, Northwest, and Tibet regions. The positive phase of the PDO is also expected to reduce the severity of droughts in Inner Mongolia and South China. On the other hand, both the PDO and global warming are expected to contribute to increase in drought severity in North and Southwest China in the near future.

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“…Although it is not apparent in the CESM-LME simulations, another noteworthy basin-scale SST forcing is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which has a similar multi-decadal periodicity to that of the AMO. Previous studies have indicated that the AMO and PDO, as well as 10 combinations of their different phases, may play important roles in modulating summer circulation and precipitation over eastern China on a multi-decadal timescale (e.g., Lu et al, 2006;Yu et al, 2015;Lin et al, 2016;Shi et al, 2016b;Yang et al, 2017). Nevertheless, it remains unclear how these oceanic drivers influence the EASM-precipitation relationship.…”

Section: Simulations 20mentioning

confidence: 99%

Timescale-dependence of the relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon strength and precipitation over eastern China in the last millennium

Shi¹,

Yan²,

Wang³

2017

Preprint

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Abstract. Precipitation/humidity proxies are widely used to reconstruct the historical East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) variation based on the assumption that summer precipitation over eastern China is closely and stably linked to the strength of EASM. However, whether the observed EASM-precipitation relationship (e.g., increased precipitation with a stronger EASM) was stable throughout the past time remains unclear. In this study, we used model outputs from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase Ⅲ and Community Earth System Model to investigate the stability of the EASM-15 precipitation relationship over the last millennium on different timescales. The model results indicate that the EASM strength (defined as the regionally averaged meridional wind) enhanced in the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ~950-1250 A.D.), during which there was increased precipitation over eastern China, and weakened during the Little Ice Age (LIA; ~1500-1800 A.D.), during which there was decreased precipitation, consistent with precipitation/humidity proxies. However, the simulated EASM-precipitation relationship is only stable on a centennial and longer timescale and is unstable on a multi-20 decadal timescale. The nonstationary multi-decadal EASM-precipitation relationship broadly exhibits a quasi-60-year period, which may be attributed to the internal variability of the climate system and have no significant correlation to external forcings. Our results have implications for understanding the discrepancy among various EASM proxies on a multi-decadal timescale and highlight the need to rethink reconstructed decadal EASM variations based on precipitation/humidity proxies.

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Decadal Modulation of Precipitation Patterns over Eastern China by Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Cited by 118 publications

References 56 publications

Comparison of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in climate model simulations and observations

Comparison of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in climate model simulations and observations

Multidecadal Changes in Meteorological Drought Severity and Their Drivers in Mainland China

Timescale-dependence of the relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon strength and precipitation over eastern China in the last millennium

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