2024
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl107838
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Decadal Predictability of Seasonal Temperature Distributions

André Düsterhus,
Sebastian Brune

Abstract: Decadal predictions focus regularly on the predictability of single values, like means or extremes. In this study we investigate the prediction skill of the full underlying surface temperature distributions on global and European scales. We investigate initialized hindcast simulations of the Max Planck Institute Earth system model decadal prediction system and compare the distribution of seasonal daily temperatures with estimates of the climatology and uninitialized historical simulations. In the analysis we s… Show more

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