Decadal variability of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and its impact on the Indian summer monsoon

Vibhute, Amol; Halder, Subrota; Singh, Prem; Parekh, Anant; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

doi:10.1007/s00704-020-03216-1

Cited by 21 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 80 publications

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“…For the Indian Ocean, the warm tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) or positive IOD favors positive ISMR. 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 However, the ENSO–TIO relationship has been increasing since the 2000s ( Figure S2 C), which would weaken rather than reinforce the ENSO–ISMR relationship. The relationship between ENSO and IOD 26 or between ENSO and the tropical western Pacific 29 do not show the interdecadal transition (not shown), which cannot also explain the ENSO–ISMR restoration.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Restored relationship between ENSO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall around 1999/2000

Yang

Huang

2021

The Innovation

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Summary El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was identified as the dominant predictor for the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in the early 1900s. An apparent weakening of the ENSO–ISMR relationship has been observed since the 1970s. Here, we found a clear restoration of the ENSO–ISMR relationship since 1999/2000. This restoring relationship is closely linked to the interdecadal transition of ENSO evolution and the associated sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Atlantic. During 1979–1997, summer ENSO events mainly continued from the previous winter, which can drive apparent Atlantic Niña SSTAs to offset ENSO's impact on ISMR and weaken the ENSO–ISMR relationship. In contrast, when ENSO events newly emerge from late spring, as they have done more recently during 2000–2018, the associated tropical Atlantic SSTAs are weak and shift to the tropical North Atlantic, which can offset the contribution of Atlantic Niña and reinforce the ENSO–ISMR relationship. We identified that the diversity of ENSO's evolution, continuing from the previous winter or emerging from late spring, is the dominant factor perturbing the ENSO–ISMR relationship in recent epochs, with tropical Atlantic SSTAs as the crucial bridge. This finding should be considered in our efforts to improve ISMR prediction.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Restored relationship between ENSO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall around 1999/2000

Yang

Huang

2021

The Innovation

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“…Variability in the tropical IO has also found to be strongly connected with the phase of both ENSO and IOD (Chakravorty et al 2013). Studies also suggested that decadal variability in tropical IO SST influences the monsoon dynamics, that involve Hadley and Walker circulation and modulates ISM (Vibhute et al, 2020;Roy and Collins, 2015). From the observed record, ENSO-IOD correlation is found positive and significant since later decades of the 20th century which may correspond with either weak/strong monsoon-ENSO relationship or strong/weak monsoon-IOD relationship (Cherchi and Navarra, 2013).…”

Section: Ism-iod Teleconnection: Observationsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Teleconnections between tropical SST modes and Indian summer monsoon in observation and CMIP5 models

Roy

Kripalani

2021

Indian Summer Monsoon Variability

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“…(2017) noted that the oceans play a central role in the decadal climate variability because of their thermal and dynamical inertia. Several recent studies have emphasized the manifestation of decadal variations in the TIO (e.g., Lee and McPhaden, 2008; Feng et al ., 2010; Han et al ., 2010; Han et al ., 2014; Li and Han, 2015; Dong et al ., 2016; Krishnamurthy and Krishnamurthy, 2016; Mohapatra et al ., 2020; Vibhute et al ., 2020). The leading EOF of low‐pass filtered SSTs in the Indian Ocean explains 54% of the variance (or decadal variance) and shows a basin‐wide pattern (Han et al ., 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Vibhute et al . (2020) found that the decadal variability in TIO SST influences the monsoon dynamics and moist thermodynamics leading to near in‐phase changes in the rainfall over the monsoon core zone.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of CMIP6 models' skill for tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature variability

Halder

Parekh

Chowdary

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The present study examines the ability of Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models in representing the dominant modes of tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the interannual and decadal time scale. Historical simulations from 27 CMIP6 models are assessed against Extended Reconstructed SST over the period of 1854 to 2014. Spectrum analysis reveals that many models reproduce interannual and decadal variability of TIO SST but underestimate the amplitude of variability with some disparity in the periodicity. All models can reproduce the dominant basin‐wide mode of interannual and decadal variability of TIO SST reasonably well. Skill score analysis of TIO SST variability reveals that KACE‐1‐0‐G has highest skill, followed by FGOALS‐f3‐L, EC‐Earth3‐Veg‐LR, ACCESS‐ESM1‐5, CanESM5‐CanOE on the interannual timescale and FGOALS‐f3‐L, CanESM5‐CanOE, KACE‐1‐0‐G and CanESM5, respectively, showed highest skills for decadal variability. It is found that variations in radiation and latent heat flux are primarily responsible for interannual variability in TIO SST, the basin‐wide warming, in the observations. Taylor diagram analysis reveals that all the models exhibit better skill for the radiative flux; however, skill for the latent heat and momentum flux varies from model to model. It is important to note that the models in which the latent heat flux and zonal wind are better represented have produced better TIO SST variability compared to other models. A higher discrepancy in latent heat and zonal momentum flux leads to improper wind‐evaporation‐SST and wind‐circulation‐SST feedback, which in turn restricts the model skill. Besides, model that has realistic central and eastern Pacific SST variability show better skill for TIO SST variability in both interannual and decadal time scales. The present study advocates that better representation of latent heat flux and zonal wind in coupled models is important for the accurate simulation of interannual and decadal variability in TIO SST.

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Decadal variability of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and its impact on the Indian summer monsoon

Cited by 21 publications

References 80 publications

Restored relationship between ENSO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall around 1999/2000

Restored relationship between ENSO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall around 1999/2000

Teleconnections between tropical SST modes and Indian summer monsoon in observation and CMIP5 models

Assessment of CMIP6 models' skill for tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature variability

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