Decarbonization of China's transportation sector: In light of national mitigation toward the Paris Agreement goals

Pan, Xunzhang; Wang, Hailin; Wang, Lining; Chen, Wenying

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2018.04.144

Cited by 120 publications

(44 citation statements)

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“…Transportation and mobility use significant amounts of energy, and those sectors account for a substantial amount of greenhouse gas emissions and other energy-related externalities (Pan et al 2018;Sonmez et al 2017;Mohammadi and Taylo 2017;Zhang et al 2011;Flórez-Orrego et al 2015;Malla 2014;Ridjan et al 2014;Usón et al 2011). Also, the electrification of passenger transport (the merging of energy and transport systems) offers many opportunities and is an emerging but core theme in this journal.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reviewing Nordic transport challenges and climate policy priorities: Expert perceptions of decarbonisation in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden

Sovacool

Noel

Kester

et al. 2018

Energy

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The five Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden have aggressive climate and energy policies in place and are largely on track in their decarbonisation of electricity, heat, and buildings. Transportation and mobility, however, remains a pressing challenge. This study asks: what are the greatest national and regional transport challenges facing Nordic countries? To provide an answer, the authors conducted 227 semi-structured interviews with participants from 201 institutions across seventeen cities within the Nordic region. Those interviewed represent a diverse array of stakeholders involved with transport technology, policy and practice. Although respondents identified 44 distinct transport challenges, the fossil fuel intensity of transport was by far the most frequently mentioned by than two-fifths (42%) of the expert sample. Five other challenges were also mentioned the most frequently by respondents: long travel distances (17%), the state of public transport infrastructure (16%), congestion (15%), population density (10%), and electrification of transport (10%). Interestingly, items such as costs and affordability, energy or transport efficiency, consumer knowledge and awareness, and automobile accidents were mentioned by only 3% (or less). The article concludes by what this heterogeneity and prioritization of challenges means for future Nordic research and policy.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reviewing Nordic transport challenges and climate policy priorities: Expert perceptions of decarbonisation in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden

Sovacool

Noel

Kester

et al. 2018

Energy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“… Regarding several climate conditions and differences between urban and rural areas, China's building sector is represented and calibrated using a combination of climate zones (severe cold, cold, hot summer-cold winter, and hot summer-warm winter) and districts (urban, rural and commercial) with five types of energy services (cooling, heating, lighting, water heating and cooking, and electric equipment) ( Chen et al, 2019 ). According to transport areas, characters and purposes, China's transportation sector is downscaled and calibrated into five passenger (intercity transport, urban transport, rural transport and international aviation for private passengers; and business transport for government bodies and companies) and four freight subsectors (general domestic freight, rural three/four-wheeler freight, international ship freight, and international aviation freight) with specific types of modal services ( Pan et al, 2018 ; Yin et al, 2015 ). …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of near-term mitigation on China's long-term energy transitions for aligning with the Paris goals

et al. 2020

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In the international community, there are many appeals to ratcheting up the current nationally determined contributions (NDCs), in order to narrow the 2030 global emissions gap with the Paris goals. Near-term mitigation has a direct impact on the required efforts beyond 2030 to control warming within 2°C or 1.5°C successfully. In this study, implications of near-term mitigation on China's long-term energy transitions until 2100 for aligning with the Paris goals, are quantified using a refined Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) with six mitigation scenarios. Results show that intensifying near-term mitigation will alleviate China's transitional challenges during 2030–2050 and long-term reliance on carbon dioxide removal technologies (CDR). Each five-year earlier peaking of CO 2 allows almost a five-year later carbon neutrality of China's energy system. To align with 2°C (1.5°C), peaking in 2025 instead of 2030 reduces the requirement of CDR over the century by 17% (13%). Intensifying near-term mitigation also tends to have economic benefits to China's Paris-aligned energy transitions. Under 2°C (1.5°C), peaking in 2025 instead of 2030, with larger near-term mitigation costs by 1.3 (1.6) times, has the potential to reduce China's aggregate mitigation costs throughout the century by 4% (6%). Although in what way China's NDC is to be updated is determined by decision-makers, transitional and economic benefits suggest China to try its best to pursue more ambitious near-term mitigation in accordance with its latest national circumstances and development needs.

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“…The end-use energy service demands highly drive the dynamics and developments of the future energy system. To better reflect circumstances and energy service demands and identify mitigation options for China, we have further refined China's three end-use sectors (industry, building and transportation) on top of the standard GCAM4.0 (the refined version is also called as GCAM-TU and detailed in Yin et al 2015, Wang et al 2016, Chen et al 2018, Pan et al 2018. Overall, industry is disaggregated into eleven subsectors (steel-iron, cement, aluminum and nonferrous metals, chemicals, manufacturing, construction, mining, paper and wood, nonmetallic minerals, food process, agriculture); building is disaggregated into four climate zones (severe cold, old, hot summer cold winter, hot summer warm winter) and five services (heating, cooling, lighting, hot water and cooking, household appliances); transportation is disaggregated into five passenger (intercity, urban, rural, business, international air) and four freight (general, rural, international ship, international air) subsectors and further into specific modes and technologies.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To translate the calculated post-NDC budgets into emissions trajectories that China might follow from the NDC toward the Paris climate goals, this study largely follows Pan et al (2018) which revise the analytic capped-emissions trajectory model proposed in Raupach et al (2014) to accommodate negative emissions. The acceptable sizes of negative emissions and associated technologies (in particular BECCS) have been a social debate and not determined (the Chinese government has not yet promulgated any specific policy on BECCS).…”

Section: Scenarios and Assumptionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of biomass in China’s long-term mitigation toward the Paris climate goals

Pan

Chen

Wang

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Biomass is a crucial option of substituting fossil fuels to reduce emissions, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) allows for obtaining net-negative emissions. We explore the role of biomass in China's long-term mitigation toward the Paris climate goals in light of three narratives and five mitigation scenarios, modeling by a refined Global Change Assessment Model. While presenting a limited contribution to achieving China's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), biomass plays an important role in China's post-NDC mitigation toward the Paris climate goals. All the assessed scenarios call for extensive biomass use, accounting for 6.5%-28% of China's 2100 primary energy in our three 2°C scenarios and 15%-30% in our two 1.5°C scenarios. The exact biomass deployment trajectories tend to depend greatly on how China envisages national mitigation paces and BECCS strategies. For either 2°C or 1.5°C, a smaller negative-emission narrative, which means a more rapid immediate decarbonization of the energy system toward mid-century, depends on larger bioenergy in medium-to-long-term. Delaying short-and medium-term ambition delays bioenergy applications but requires far more in the second half of the century to create greater negative emissions via BECCS. Moving from 2°C toward 1.5°C features higher and earlier bioenergy deployments and meaningfully increasing BECCS volumes and biofuel shares in China's energy system. Consequently, the Chinese stockholders might be ready to make a decision on to what degree biomass and BECCS enter the sphere of China's energy and climate policies, which will greatly influence not only national biomass roadmap but also mid-century mitigation targets.

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Decarbonization of China's transportation sector: In light of national mitigation toward the Paris Agreement goals

Cited by 120 publications

References 44 publications

Reviewing Nordic transport challenges and climate policy priorities: Expert perceptions of decarbonisation in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden

Reviewing Nordic transport challenges and climate policy priorities: Expert perceptions of decarbonisation in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden

Implications of near-term mitigation on China's long-term energy transitions for aligning with the Paris goals

The role of biomass in China’s long-term mitigation toward the Paris climate goals

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