Decarbonization of Electricity Sector of Pakistan—An Application of Times Energy Model

Valasai, Gordhan Das; Mirjat, Nayyar Hussain; Uqaili, Muhammad Aslam; Memon, Hafeez Ur Rahman; Samoo, Saleem Raza; Harijan, Khanji

doi:10.18178/jocet.2017.5.6.425

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Hence, with huge estimated coal reserves of 185.175 billion tons, Pakistan ranks as the fourth richest country worldwide [17,18]. Some studies suggest that by utilising this huge coal potential, Pakistan could produce as much as 100,000 MW of electricity for a lifetime of 30 years [19].…”

Section: Coalmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Future of Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: A System Dynamics-Based Approach for Estimating Hubbert Peaks

et al. 2017

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This paper presents an effort pertaining to the simulation of the future production in Pakistan of different primary energy resources, i.e., coal, natural gas and crude oil, thereby constructing Hubbert peaks. In this context, the past 45 years' production data of primary energy resources of Pakistan have been analyzed and simulated using a generic STELLA (Systems Thinking, Experimental Learning Laboratory with Animation) model. The results show that the Hubbert peak of Pakistan's crude oil production has been somehow already achieved in 2013, with the highest production of 4.52 million toe, which is 1.51 times the production in 2000. Similarly, the natural gas peak production is expected in 2024 with a production of 32.70 million toe which shall be 1.96-fold the extraction of the resource in the year 2000. On the other hand, the coal production in the country has been historically very low and with a constant production rate that is gradually picking up, the peak production year for the coal is anticipated to be in the year 2080 with an estimated production of 134.06 million. Based on the results of this study, which provide a greater understanding of future energy patterns, it is recommended that an energy security policy be devised for the country to ensure sustained supplies in the future.

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Section: Coalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…At the moment, the country is termed as an energy deficient nation and relies heavily on imported fossil fuels [2][3][4]. According to estimates around 60% of the total foreign exchange of the Pakistanis is spent on importing the fossil fuels.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Future of Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: A System Dynamics-Based Approach for Estimating Hubbert Peaks

et al. 2017

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“…By 2050, the energy requirement of Pakistan is estimated to witness a three-fold increase [8]. However, the energy demand is significantly more than energy production [5], [6]. Between 2013 and 2020, the growth rate in electricity demand was 7.8%.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical Energy Information and Analysis of Pakistan Economic Corridor Based on Strengths, Availabilities, and Future Roadmap

et al. 2020

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In Pakistan, the performance of conventional electrical grids is inefficient, resulting in severe energy crises. To overcome the alarming challenges persisting in the energy grids, Pakistan must focus on system protection, grid reliability, distribution and transmission, and power quality. The inefficiencies in grid protection and management signify an overall problematic energy scenario. The solutions to these problems include the improvement of domestic, commercial, and industrial demand-side management and the reduction in distribution network losses. A smart grid (SG) is a critical requirement as it can overcome the shortcomings of the existing grid owing to its promising features, enhanced consumer empowerment, utmost security; efficient and optimized energy flow; and demand-supply management. Thus, the SG is essential to overcome the energy crisis in Pakistan and achieve the standards of other developed nations in the energy sector. This study aims to highlight the significant prospects of SGs within Pakistan with the key objectives of its availability requirements. We compare the energy scenario in Pakistan with that of other countries and recommend various aspects that require improvement through SG implementation. Additionally, we discuss the incorporation of renewable energy resources and present a market analysis regarding SGs to illustrate the SG scenario and its implementation in Pakistan. Moreover, we analyze and evaluate detailed taxonomies of energy generation, energy projects, renewable energy assessment, power market trends in Pakistan, and the basic requirements of SGs. Furthermore, a critical analysis of the energy sector in Pakistan is elaborated, which describes the possibilities, requirements, and strengths pertaining to the transformation of the modern electric grid with respect to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Thus, we believe that our work is more versatile in improving the energy system of Pakistan for the implementation of the SG.

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“…On the other hand, the country is believed to have a huge potential of energy resources which by harnessing appropriately can help in addressing the energy woes of the growing population. However, unfortunately, with no effective planning and a lack of implementation commitment, the indigenous energy resources could not be developed optimally [12]. As a result, Pakistan still must import oil and consume natural gas heavily to meet its commercial energy demand.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Criteria Analysis of Electricity Generation Scenarios for Sustainable Energy Planning in Pakistan

et al. 2018

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Abstract:The now over a decade-long electricity crisis in Pakistan has adversely affected the socio-economic development of the country. This situation is mainly due to a lack of sustainable energy planning and policy formulation. In this context, energy models can be of great help but only a handful of such efforts have been undertaken in Pakistan. Two key shortcomings pertaining to energy models lead to their low utilization in developing countries. First, the models do not effectively make decisions, but rather provide a set of alternatives based on modeling parameters; and secondly, the complexity of these models is often poorly understood by the decision makers. As such, in this study, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) has been used for the sustainability assessment of energy modeling results for long-term electricity planning. The four scenario alternatives developed in the energy modeling effort, Reference (REF), Renewable Energy Technologies (RET), Clean Coal Maximum (CCM) and Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC), have been ranked using the Expert Choice ® tool based on the AHP methodology. The AHP decision support framework of this study revealed the EEC scenario as the most favorable electricity generation scenario followed by the REF, RET and CCM scenarios. Besides that, this study proposes policy recommendations to undertake integrated energy modeling and decision analysis for sustainable energy planning in Pakistan.

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Decarbonization of Electricity Sector of Pakistan—An Application of Times Energy Model

Cited by 9 publications

References 6 publications

The Future of Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: A System Dynamics-Based Approach for Estimating Hubbert Peaks

The Future of Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: A System Dynamics-Based Approach for Estimating Hubbert Peaks

Statistical Energy Information and Analysis of Pakistan Economic Corridor Based on Strengths, Availabilities, and Future Roadmap

Multi-Criteria Analysis of Electricity Generation Scenarios for Sustainable Energy Planning in Pakistan

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