Decarbonization pathways for the residential sector in the United States

Abstract

Residential GHG emissions in the United States are driven in part by a housing stock where on-site fossil combustion is common, home sizes are large by international standards, energy e ciency potential is large, and electricity generation in many regions is GHG-intensive. In this analysis we assess decarbonization pathways for the United States residential sector to 2060, through 108 scenarios describing housing stock evolution, new housing characteristics, renovation levels, and clean electricity. The lowest emission scenarios rely on very rapid decarbonization of electricity supply alongside extensive renovations to existing homes-focused on improving thermal envelopes and heat pump electri cation of heating. Reducing the size, increasing the multifamily share, and increasing the electri cation of new homes provide further emission cuts, and combining all strategies enables emissions reductions of 91% between 2020 and 2050.Construction becomes the main source of emissions in the most ambitious scenarios, motivating increased attention on reducing embodied emissions.

Decarbonizing real estate portfolios considering optimal retrofit investment and policy conditions to 2050

“…By modeling the long-term evolutions of (1) energy carrier prices, (2) CO 2 taxes, (3) technological learning from RE technologies with (4) prospective policy measures, our results demonstrate a more “level playing field” for high-CAPEX, RE-based systems becoming more attractive than incumbent fossil fuel technologies (low-CAPEX, high-OPEX). This aligns with recent studies 40 , 61 , 62 indicating a paradigm shift away from fossil fuels toward RE-based and sector-coupled energy systems because of the superior techno-economics.…”

“…To better establish the energy modeling—policy interface, 34 we evaluate policy conditions by constructing three comprehensive building sector policy mix 21 scenarios along with further analyzing the influence of an automotive fleet-inspired policy implementation approach for building portfolios. We differ from existing international-level analyses, 35 , 36 national-level analyses 37 , 38 , 39 , 40 , 41 , 42 and scenario analyses, 43 , 44 , 45 , 46 which largely consider cost optimization toward generalized energy or emissions benchmarks, by taking an owner’s investment perspective under various policy conditions.…”

Improved Copper Circularity as a Result of Increased Material Efficiency in the U.S. Housing Stock

“…94 Further growth is expected as deep renovations in pursuit of residential decarbonization could see the number of annual heat pumps installations for renovations reaching 6−8 million from 2030. 95 The growth of residential solar photovoltaic (PV) installations is also strong; over 400 thousand residential PV systems were installed in 2020, up from 0.74 thousand in 2000. 96 The remodeling of existing buildings to house more people would require copper, which might not be sufficiently caught in the model.…”

Review of Urban Building Types and Their Energy Use and Carbon Emissions in Life-Cycle Analyses from Low- and Middle-Income Countries

“…7,8 Older buildings had less effective insulation and higher air infiltration, increasing energy demand for thermal comfort. 9 The overall importance of the sector for GHG mitigation and energy savings makes it essential to study contemporary residential buildings and possible GHG reduction and energy efficiency strategies. This review proposes ways to streamline this process, by identifying building types, evaluating data availability, and assessing literature quality for previously underrepresented developing regions.…”

“…Globally, residential and nonresidential buildings have accounted for approximately 35% of final energy consumption and 38% of total direct and indirect CO 2 emissions. − Residential building energy consumption constituted about 62% of the global building energy consumption . Modern residential buildings contain greenhouse gas (GHG) intensive materials like cement, steel, and concrete. , Older buildings had less effective insulation and higher air infiltration, increasing energy demand for thermal comfort . The overall importance of the sector for GHG mitigation and energy savings makes it essential to study contemporary residential buildings and possible GHG reduction and energy efficiency strategies.…”