Decarbonizing China’s Road Transport Sector: Strategies toward Carbon Neutrality

Abstract

China’s road transport sector plays an important role in meeting carbon early peaking and carbon neutrality goals. This study examines how the sector might be decarbonized by modelling five scenarios using the LEAP model. This study aims to inform China road transport sector’s emission reduction target, identification of cost-effective measures that deliver on the sectoral emission reduction targets, facilitate low-carbon investments, and identification of decarbonization measures with air pollution reduction co-benefits.

Decarbonisation Pathways and How Finance can Accelerate the Business Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

“…The predicted number of private vehicles per thousand people and the growth rate of heavyduty trucks by 2060 are similar to the national level in existing literature and reports (Xue et al 2019;Lu et al 2018).…”

“…2015). However, the figures for private cars and heavy trucks were revised as 12,000 km and 50,000 km (Xue et al 2019) because many studies indicate that the Guidebook's average annual mileages for these vehicles are relatively high.…”

“…The share of clean energy in upstream electricity and hydrogen production is based on WRI's previous study of China's road transport (Xue and Liu 2022). Clean energy will account for 92 percent of electricity generation by 2050 and will reach 100 percent by 2060; by 2050, the share of grey hydrogen in the hydrogen supply will drop to 15 percent, and grey hydrogen will be completely out of the market by 2060.…”

Evaluating Fuel Cell vs. Battery Electric Trucks: Economic Perspectives in Alignment with China’s Carbon Neutrality Target

“…In the process of realizing carbon neutrality within the automotive sector, the reduction in carbon emissions from heavy-duty trucks represents one of the most challenging aspects. In China, despite HDTs comprising a mere 3% of the total vehicle population, they contribute to a disproportionate 35% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across all vehicle categories [2]. This trend is similarly observed in the United States and Europe, where HDTs are responsible for approximately one-quarter of the transportation sector's GHG emissions, despite their relatively low prevalence [3,4].…”