Decision Analysis and Risk Models for Land Development Affecting Infrastructure Systems

Abstract

Coordination and layering of models to identify risks in complex systems such as large-scale infrastructure of energy, water, and transportation is of current interest across application domains. Such infrastructures are increasingly vulnerable to adjacent commercial and residential land development. Land development can compromise the performance of essential infrastructure systems and increase the costs of maintaining or increasing performance. A risk-informed approach to this topic would be useful to avoid surprise, regret, and the need for costly remedies. This article develops a layering and coordination of models for risk management of land development affecting infrastructure systems. The layers are: system identification, expert elicitation, predictive modeling, comparison of investment alternatives, and implications of current decisions for future options. The modeling layers share a focus on observable factors that most contribute to volatility of land development and land use. The relevant data and expert evidence include current and forecasted growth in population and employment, conservation and preservation rules, land topography and geometries, real estate assessments, market and economic conditions, and other factors. The approach integrates to a decision framework of strategic considerations based on assessing risk, cost, and opportunity in order to prioritize needs and potential remedies that mitigate impacts of land development to the infrastructure systems. The approach is demonstrated for a 5,700-mile multimodal transportation system adjacent to 60,000 tracts of potential land development.

Integrated risk management of safety and development on transportation corridors

“…While the definition of time to develop and contributing factors has been modeled in earlier work using several alternative perspectives [26,27], this paper has focused on a single perspective elicited from experts. The data for each influential factor was processed to define levels for each factor value.…”

“…An influence diagram is used to filter the most influential factors for use in probability statements representing the potential for land development, as described by Thekdi and Lambert [26]. This diagram provides the ability to graphically represent conditional interdependencies among random variables such as factors, decisions, uncertain events, and objectives.…”

“…Regret resulting from incompatible real estate development may Contents lists available at ScienceDirect journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ress include insufficient infrastructure to accommodate future demand, unsafe infrastructure design for future demand, land development inducing physical barriers to expansion, land development inducing a financial burden on potential expansion, and others. The Corridor Trace Analysis describes the influence of risk scenarios on agency priorities with recognition that combining heterogeneous factors could result in opportunities as well as threats [11,12,25,26]. The innovation of the CTA in this paper is to integrate established replicable analyses such that no single element stands alone.…”

“…Vanka et al discuss the role of access management in coordinating land use policies and transportation infrastructure management. Although existing literature describes the relationship between land development and infrastructure risk [26], past efforts have neglected to address coordination of land use forecasting, corridor management, and existing infrastructure conditions for large heterogeneous regions, as described in the this paper.…”

A land use and transportation integration method for land use allocation and transportation strategies in China

“…Chen and Naylor (2011) demonstrate that the densest mixed-use scenario has significant increases in transit ridership, non-motorized modes of travel and significant decreases in VMT and emissions. Thekdi and Lambert (2012) proposed a decision framework of strategic considerations based on assessing risk, cost, and opportunity in order to prioritize needs and potential remedies that mitigate impacts of land development to the infrastructure systems. The approach is demonstrated for a 5700-mile multimodal transportation system adjacent to 60,000 tracts of potential land development.…”