Decision making for global problems

Kaye, G.D.; Solem, Knut Erik

doi:10.1016/0016-3287(92)90047-j

Cited by 3 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…However, as is now evident at least for those who seriously study the problems of decision making, the more information provided, the greater the delay in reaching a decision, hence the greater the chance of postponing it, in some cases perhaps indefinitely (Kaye and Solem, 1992). Whereas this particular problem seems to be related to information overload, it may also be its real cause.…”

Section: Technology Politics and Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The top-level decision makers (the CEO or the elected politicians) have generally little or no use for longer-term problems that are presented in this way. Theirs is more often than not nowadays a world of relatively serene simplicity, interrupted by bursts of spasmodic, frantic activity, which then tends to spread itself downwards in the hierarchical structures of public or private bureaucracy (Kaye and Solem, 1992).…”

Section: Technology Politics and Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrating foresight into government. Is it possible? Is it likely?

Solem

2011

Foresight

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If you would like to write for this, or any other Emerald publication, then please use our Emerald for Authors service information about how to choose which publication to write for and submission guidelines are available for all. Please visit www.emeraldinsight.com/ authors for more information. About Emerald www.emeraldinsight.comEmerald is a global publisher linking research and practice to the benefit of society. The company manages a portfolio of more than 290 journals and over 2,350 books and book series volumes, as well as providing an extensive range of online products and additional customer resources and services.Emerald is both COUNTER 4 and TRANSFER compliant. The organization is a partner of the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) and also works with Portico and the LOCKSS initiative for digital archive preservation. AbstractPurpose -The purpose of this paper is to examine and explain the role of foresight in government, while making an attempt to ascertain why foresight is both necessary and rare. The paper aims to identify main areas where foresight is needed as well as the constraints that it faces. It also aims to provide some prescriptions and recommendations for improving both system and process.Design/methodology/approach -The methodology is based on case studies and literature search on futures/forecasting. Furthermore, analysis and observations are based on the author's own participation in different governmental and research environments; in several academic circles; within ''think tanks'' and on the international circuit (mostly at the UN, NATO, IAEA, IIASA and OECD) as well as within the Scandinavian scene.Findings -Several methodologies and techniques that are identified here may allow people to help perceive, evaluate and control the effects of their actions, present as well as future. However, they have, so far, only been used spasmodically. One reason for this state of affairs is that the difference between ''well-structured'' (normal) and ''ill-structured'' (futures type)problems has not been properly identified or satisfactorily solved. The political system faces three major problems: the problem of competence; the problem of deliverability; and the problem of legitimacy. All of these can be helped by the understanding and application of proper foresight methods and techniques.Originality/value -From the design/methodology point of view, this paper draws on the combined sources of international practice and theoretical implications. Its findings are easily comprehended and hence useful for their practical application for decision making on global as well as regional problems. The concept of fully ''learning to unlearn'' is of primary importance, as well as that of not ''discounting the future'', for which several methods and techniques have been analyzed and suggested.Some of the principal ideas, with inputs from subsequent discussions with a variety of different experts, were developed further and presented to the NATO AC/243 (Panel 7)

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Section: Technology Politics and Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Technology Politics and Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating foresight into government. Is it possible? Is it likely?

Solem

2011

Foresight

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“…Several such methods and techniques exist. However, certain problems also exist concerning the interaction among researchers, planners and decision-makers, which may lead, for example, to a phenomenon known as "the disappearing decision" (Kaye and Solem 1992):…”

Section: Industry and The Overall Decision-making Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, an additional sub-set of the problem exists, which should -and could -be addressed. It pertains to perceptions held, and could be formulated as follows (Kaye and Solem 1992):…”

Section: Industry and The Overall Decision-making Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Here the suggestions outlined in the article Decision Making forGlobal Problems specify some criteria for sustainable development on a level, which will likely be generally acceptable to the participating political actors. In this way they provide the possibility for further actions, by relating these to the intentions of industrial ecology(Kaye and Solem 1992).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Industrial Ecology As a Strategic Instrument for Sustainability

Solem¹,

Brattebø²

2001

Journal for Manufacturing Science and Production

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This paper demonstrates how industrial ecology constitutes a promising strategic instrument to help implement sustainability by focusing on resource productivity, producer responsibility and collaboration in society, but with a particular responsibility concerning the role of industry. In order fully to understand and make use of Industrial Ecology, it has to be regarded as a systems oriented, emerging concept as well as an ongoing process, where informed strategies must be developed in close collaboration among industrial leaders, external decision-makers and specialists, in order to advance the political agenda.With the development of an ecologically informed economy, our industrial society would benefit from theory and principles in natural sciences, thermodynamics and ecology. The paper outlines the framework for such a process.

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Biotechnology and foresight

Solem

Gaivoronskaia

2005

Foresight

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Purpose -To analyze several complex issues which are being addressed by biotechnological research and identify possible solutions to some concrete problems.Design/methodology/approach -The objectives are achieved by the use of detailed data and literature search, decision analysis, case studies and personal involvement in research conferences on this and closely related problem areas. The approach to the topic is critical and constructive based on own work and that of colleagues and other analysts.Findings -Significant issues are waiting to be properly addressed in decision making within the field of modern biotechnology; this applies to the USA as well as Europe. However, controversies about insufficient risk assessments, inadequate risk management or ethical acceptability in different applications of biotechnology co-exist with controversies about their needs. Technology, politics and values must be integrated. Inadequacies in decision making may be at least partly resolved by proper planning mechanisms, the use of think tanks and applied foresight analysis. Research limitations/implications -Better understanding of a more general problem, i.e. gaps in the framework in the introduction of biotechnology into the food sector must be pursued, as public reactions to this new technology and its usage will likely increase, as will fears associated with it. New ideas are needed. Future work must identify ways and means for assessment and evaluation of ''think tanks'' and their proper use if these are to be applied.Practical implications -This paper will provide a very useful source of information on a complex and increasingly important subject for a target audience consisting of: decision makers in government, biotech companies, international and national experts, researchers and graduate students. It will broaden the practical understanding in the use of biotechnology.Originality/value -The paper fulfils an identified information/resources need and offers insight and practical help to organizations and individuals involved with biotechnological research, applications and decision making.

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Decision making for global problems

Cited by 3 publications

References 5 publications

Integrating foresight into government. Is it possible? Is it likely?

Integrating foresight into government. Is it possible? Is it likely?

Industrial Ecology As a Strategic Instrument for Sustainability

Biotechnology and foresight

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