Decision Science Perspectives on Hurricane Vulnerability: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

Abstract

Abstract:Although the field has seen great advances in hurricane prediction and response, the economic toll from hurricanes on U.S. communities continues to rise. We present data from Hurricanes Earl (2010), Irene (2011), Isaac (2012), and Sandy (2012 to show that individual and household decisions contribute to this vulnerability. From phone surveys of residents in communities threatened by impending hurricanes, we identify five decision biases or obstacles that interfere with residents' ability to protect themselves and minimize property damage: (1) temporal and spatial myopia, (2) poor mental models of storm risk, (3) gaps between objective and subjective probability estimates, (4) prior storm experience, and (5) social factors. We then discuss ways to encourage better decision making and reduce the economic and emotional impacts of hurricanes, using tools such as decision defaults (requiring residents to opt out of precautions rather than opt in) and tailoring internet-based forecast information so that it is local, specific, and emphasizes impacts rather than probability.

Hurricane Risk Communication: Visualization and Behavioral Science Concepts

“…Even when residents living in a high-risk area have hurricane shutters, they often do not put them up before the storm hits (Baker et al 2012). Some researchers have found that few people living in evacuation zones plan to evacuate (Milch et al 2018). Even those who plan to evacuate may not ultimately evacuate when the storm approaches (Meyer et al 2014).…”

“…Single action bias Individuals who are faced with problems that may require multiple protective steps stop preparing after completing just one of those steps (Weber 1997) When faced with a hurricane threat, individuals may take a single preparatory step to ''relieve the psychological burden of inaction'' and then stop (Milch et al 2018); communications might be designed to emphasize that multiple actions are needed for communities in the hurricane's path Temporal/spatial myopia Individuals tend to underestimate the costs of phenomena that are farther away in space and time…”

“…Respondents may resist putting up storm shutters because it is ''too soon'' (Milch et al 2018) or may delay ''effort-intensive actions'' until perceived storm risk reaches higher levels (Meyer et al 2013(Meyer et al , 2014; communications may be more effective if they list ''deadlines'' for actions like evacuation or shutter installation or if they emphasize that preparations frequently take longer than expected This has been observed in other natural disaster contexts; for example, examining the Loma Prieta earthquake in California, Bolin (1990) found that some Hispanic victims of the earthquake were reluctant to enter shelters because of a fear of their residency status being challenged or because of the presence of armed National Guard troops that they associated (negatively) with the internal security apparatuses of their country of origin. Different cultural, historical, and economic backgrounds have been shown to lead to different responses to forecast products and evacuation orders.…”

Fatalities Caused by Hydrometeorological Disasters in Texas

“…Research on the October 2015 flood event in Columbia, SC, indicated that considerations for public safety were sometimes secondary to profitable land development [21]. Hurricane research that was published in 2018 analyzed the decision biases of persons affected by hurricanes and found that temporal band spatial myopia is a major issue that places a lower priority on long-term decisions (e.g., preparation) than short term routine tasks with the failed intention of addressing the long term need when the disaster event is closer in time [22].…”

Fatalities Caused by Hydrometeorological Disasters in Texas

“…Population density, race/ethnicity, and socio-economic status are key factors that consistently increase social vulnerability. Recent research [23] Hurricane research that was published in 2018 analyzed the decision biases of persons affected by the four specific hurricanes: Earl (2010), Irene (2011), Isaac (2012), and Sandy (2012) highlighted five major decision biases that may put communities at greater risk of damage and deaths from a hurricane [24]. Temporal and spatial myopia is a major issue that places at lower priority long-term decisions such as preparation for a pending hurricane than it does on short term routine tasks with the failed intention of addressing the long term need when the disaster event is closer in time.…”