Decline in rice grain yields with temperature: Models and correlations can give different estimates

Sheehy, J. E.; Mitchell, Peter; Ferrer, A.

doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2006.01.001

Cited by 152 publications

(95 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…For each 1 °C increase in T avg during RGS and RGS 1 , yield changed by -6.82% to 5.74% and 1.77% to 10.12%, respectively. This result was consistent with the finding in some other researches [7,17,18], which suggesting that temperature was above the optimal temperature of rice production and increasing temperature might reduce yield. However, T avg during RGS 2 and RGS 3 were significantly positively related to rice yield in some regions, which was consistent with other studies [12,19].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

Responses of Single Cropping Rice Yields to Climate Change in Sichuan Province, China

Chen¹,

Pang²,

Zhang³

et al. 2017

JAST-B

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Sichuan province is one of the 13 major grain-producing provinces in China and also an obvious region of climate change. In this study, the responses of single cropping rice yields to climate variables under climate change at each development stage were investigated by using the linear regression method based on yield and climate data at 84 counties in Sichuan province of China from 1981 to 2012. The results indicated that change of all climate variables (increase of average temperature and diurnal temperature range, and decrease of precipitation and solar radiation) during different development stages in recent 30 years caused significant change of yield in less than 10% of the rice planting area. However, climate change from 1981 to 2012 had caused significant impacts on rice yield in roughly 47.6% of the rice area, with yields fluctuating by -11.77% to 24.55%. Moreover, average temperature was the most key contributor for the impact on rice yields in all climate variables and solar radiation was the most key contributor for the negative impact on rice yields. The empirical findings presented here provide a foundation for anticipating climate change impacts on rice production.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

Responses of Single Cropping Rice Yields to Climate Change in Sichuan Province, China

Chen¹,

Pang²,

Zhang³

et al. 2017

JAST-B

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“…Decrease in solar radiation had reduced crop yield by reducing photosysthesis rate and biomass accumulation (Sheehy et al 2006;Zhang et al 2010). On the other hand, improvement in crop cultivars and agronomic management practices had alleviated the negative impacts of climate change and increased crop yields (Zhang et al 2013;Xiao and Tao 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution of yield change for rice-wheat rotation system in China to climate change, cultivars and agronomic management in the past three decades

et al. 2015

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Using the detailed field experiment data from 1981 to 2009 at four representative agro-meteorological experiment stations in China, along with the Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) rice-wheat model, we evaluated the impact of sowing/transplanting date on phenology and yield of rice-wheat rotation system (RWRS). We also disentangled the contributions of climate change, modern cultivars, sowing/ transplanting density and fertilization management, as well as changes in each climate variables, to yield change in RWRS, in the past three decades. We found that change in sowing/transplanting date did not significantly affect rice and wheat yield in RWRS, although alleviated the negative impact of climate change to some extent. From 1981 to 2009, climate change jointly caused rice and wheat yield change by −17.4 to 1.5 %, of which increase in temperature reduced yield by 0.0-5.8 % and decrease in solar radiation reduced it by 1.5-8.7 %. Cultivars renewal, modern sowing/transplanting density and fertilization management contributed to yield change by 14.4-27.2, −4.7-−0.1 and 2.3-22.2 %, respectively. Our findings highlight that modern cultivars and agronomic management compensated the negative impacts of climate change and played key roles in yield increase in the past three decades.

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“…The simplest approach estimates yields (calculated as log(yield)) as a function of mean temperature, mean precipitation, and their squares. However, several studies have emphasized the differential effects of minimum and maximum temperature (Yin et al 1996;Peng et al 2004;Welch et al 2010), the importance of including radiation (Sheehy et al 2006;Welch et al 2010), and the differential effects across phases of the growing season (Welch et al 2010). In addition, there has been extensive research on water requirements for rice production in irrigated (Bouman et al 2005(Bouman et al , 2007 or rain-fed settings (Xu and Mackill 1996;Sharma et al 1994;Wade et al 1999).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Early Warning Techniques for Local Climate Resilience: Smallholder Rice in Lao PDR

Behnke

Heft-Neal

Roland‐Holst

2017

Climate Smart Agriculture

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As part of the Regional Rice Initiative Pilot Project, UNFAO has committed resources to support policy dialog and decision capacity related to climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture, with particular attention to food security and the rice sector in Asia and the Pacific. This initiative includes sponsorship of research to deliver information and knowledge products for policy makers to better manage climate risks to the rice sector and identify adaptation needs for the rice sector in Lao PDR. In the following pages, we report on progress of one component of this activity, econometric estimation of long term impacts that climate change can be expected to have on rice yields. The work reported here is preliminary and should not in its current form be used as a basis for policy.

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Decline in rice grain yields with temperature: Models and correlations can give different estimates

Cited by 152 publications

References 10 publications

Responses of Single Cropping Rice Yields to Climate Change in Sichuan Province, China

Responses of Single Cropping Rice Yields to Climate Change in Sichuan Province, China

Attribution of yield change for rice-wheat rotation system in China to climate change, cultivars and agronomic management in the past three decades

Early Warning Techniques for Local Climate Resilience: Smallholder Rice in Lao PDR

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