Decline of war or end of positive check? Analysis of change in war size distribution between 1816-2007

Abstract

This study examines whether there has been a decline in the risk of death by battle during wars, testing the 'long peace' hypothesis. The analysis relies on the Expanded War Dataset (Gleditsch, 2004) covering inter-and inter-state wars between 1816-2007. Using untransformed data on war sizes, the estimates do not provide empirical evidence for a decline in war over time. However, normalising the data for global human population does illustrate a likely decline in war from 1947 onwards. The results indicate that despite strong population growth wars have not become more severe.