Decline, radicalization and the attack on the US Capitol

Abstract

The attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021 was the result of a perception of relative decline on the part of American conservatives and their simultaneous radicalization. Relative decline and radicalization are both potent causes of violence. When a formerly dominant group is in decline, it may fear that in the future it will lack the bargaining power to maintain the status quo, and so resort to violence to prevent decline, or lock in present advantages. Radicalization increases the perceived stakes of power transitions; if the opponent is dangerous, all means are justified in preventing their accession to power. Conservative radicalization was driven by partisan polarization, media polarization, the emergence of social media and associated conspiracy theories, and the formation of armed right-wing groups. The structural conditions generating the attack are unlikely to ameliorate, so the potential for political violence will remain.

Social Safety Theory: Understanding social stress, disease risk, resilience, and behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond

“…Few people have gone unaffected by the social, racial, and public health events of the past few years. What began as a divisive political climate that disparaged many turned into angry protests that culminated into a shocking insurgency on the U.S. Capitol that left five people dead [ 1 ]. Lurking in the background was another type of threat: SARS-CoV-2, a highly contagious coronavirus that causes COVID-19, which some experts believe will soon be endemic [ 2 ].…”

The Supreme Court and the Dynamics of Democratic Backsliding

“…This destabilizing imbalance extends both to partisans' rhetoric (Russell 2021) and, importantly, to their proclivity to make questionable constitutional claims to advance partisan ends (Fishkin and Pozen 2018). On the political right, this asymmetrical polarization has reached its acme in a political formation characterized by white ethnocentrism, affective polarization, authoritarian attitudes, motivated reasoning yielding blatantly false beliefs, and (at the extreme) a violent repudiation of national democratic processes that do not go the desired way (Abramowitz and McCoy 2019;Iyengar et al 2019;Jardina 2019;Kydd 2021). This is just one among many iterations of American populism (Lowndes 2017).…”

They’re Still There, He’s All Gone: American Fatalities in Foreign Wars and Right-Wing Radicalization at Home

“…An individual's escalation to extremism and violence is rarely sudden or immediate, but rather the culmination of a gradual radicalization process that begins with nonviolent and less provocative activities such as disseminating radical ideas or participating in far-right organizations (McCauley and Moskalenko 2008;Bartlett and Miller 2012;Miller-Idriss 2020). Analogously, elite polarization, in the form of increasingly radical Republican Party leaders and the discourse dominating Fox News, drives macro-level trends in far-right violence and participation in far-right organizations (Kydd 2021). While only a fraction of radicalized individuals engage in extremism and violence, their nonviolent activities have a variety of other negative consequences; from distorting policy and its distributive benefits to eroding confidence in government and democratic institutions.…”

“…2 Following a similar logic, erosion of social capital or increased social isolation may be associated with political expression such as voting for right-wing parties (Bolet 2021). Demographic shifts in the racial or ethnic make-up, and cultural shifts away from conservative or traditional values, may trigger a "cultural backlash" against social and political changes (Norris and Inglehart 2019), especially when the majority or privileged group perceives these trends as threatening to erode their political power in the future (Kydd 2021). The politicization of these demographic and cultural changes leads some to develop out-group antipathies (Kinder, Sanders, and Sanders 1996;Kinder and Sears 1981;McConahay 1983) or deeper attachment to group identity (Jardina 2019), in extreme cases leading to privilege violence against groups perceived as enemies.…”