Declining internal migration? Patterns, causes and prospects

Shuttleworth, Ian; Champion, Tony

doi:10.1002/psp.2501

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…because a large share of all moves are made by the under 35 s and because migration may be a learned behaviour.Three conclusions can be drawn from the results. First, the findings add to the accumulating evidence that U.K. relocation rates fell in the two decades leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic(Shuttleworth & Champion, 2021). Crucially, declining rates of address changing seem especially pronounced among younger adults whose propensity to relocate fell by around 3.5 PPs (roughly 15% in relative terms) from 1997 to 2019.…”

mentioning

confidence: 62%

“…Levels of population mobility are changing across the Global North in ways that defy straightforward explanation. Britain is no exception and previous U.K. studies report slowing residential mobility and reduced migration propensities among formerly mobile population subgroups (Judge, 2019; McCollum et al, 2021; Shuttleworth & Champion, 2021). This study sought to further our understanding of these trends by using survey data and regression decompositions to examine how rates of address changing in early adulthood have evolved since the 1990s.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The fact that declining mobility rates are confined to the growing pool of young housing market 'outsiders' but appear less evident among the dwindling pool of advantaged 'insiders' hints that housing-related constraints may be reducing relocations. Second, we know from other studies that slowing local residential mobility rates are responsible for much of the decline in United Kingdom address changing (Shuttleworth & Champion, 2021). Most residential mobility is housing-related and stronger declines in this form of relocation implies that housing-related forces are at work.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Until recently, the conventional wisdom held that levels of population mobility within Global North countries would likely remain high or even increase through the early 21st century (Shuttleworth & Champion, 2021). This trend could be expected to be especially marked among younger adults for several reasons.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Crucially, the U.S. mobility decline appears especially marked among the formerly highly mobile groups of younger adults and renters (Foster, 2017; Myers et al, 2023). However, recent reviews indicate that there is little consistency in mobility trends across countries (Shuttleworth & Champion, 2021) and in Britain the evidence appears rather more complex. Although Judge's (2019) survey analyses show that job‐related moves and moves in the private rented sector have declined among younger Britons since the 1990s, analyses of other datasets suggest that the main trend is a modest fall in overall levels of residential mobility, with little evidence of a major mobility slowdown in early adulthood (Champion & Shuttleworth, 2017; Duke‐Williams et al, 2021; McCollum et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Are younger adults becoming less residentially mobile? A decomposition analysis of British trends, 1997–2019

Coulter

2023

Population Space and Place

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Existing evidence suggests that rates of population mobility are falling in many Global North countries. However, the magnitude, selectivity and the drivers of U.K. relocation trends remain poorly understood. Using survey data and regression decompositions, this study examines how relocation propensity during the traditionally highly mobile phase of young adulthood changed in the United Kingdom from 1997 to 2019. The results show that rates of long‐term address changing in young adulthood fell over this period due to changes in behaviour. Relocation has also become harder to predict as rates of address changing have fallen most sharply among those groups who were formerly the most mobile. The paper concludes by reflecting on the possible causes of these trends and the ways that more temporary forms of mobility may be substituting for long‐term relocations as transitions to adulthood become more protracted and precarious.

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mentioning

confidence: 62%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Are younger adults becoming less residentially mobile? A decomposition analysis of British trends, 1997–2019

Coulter

2023

Population Space and Place

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Urban–Rural Population Movements

White

2023

The Blackwell Encyclopedia of Sociology

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The movement of the population between rural and urban areas is both a major consequence and a major determinant of social change. From a sociological vantage point, this movement offers potential for significant transformation in sending and receiving communities alike, as various types of individuals (differentiated by age, sex, education, ethnicity, etc.) are added to and subtracted from the community. For the individual, the relocation may bring attendant challenges even as it brings new opportunities. Within the research community, the study of urban–rural population movement would be seen as a subdivision within the broader study of internal migration, urbanization, population redistribution, or migrant adjustment.

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Future Subnational Population Change in Germany: The Role of Internal and International Migration

Cilek,

Loichinger,

Swiaczny

et al. 2024

Population Space and Place

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Population change in Germany at the subnational level is particularly driven by changes in net international migration and shifts in internal migration flows between urbanisation, suburbanisation and counter‐urbanisation. Official population projections at the county level use a single scenario, thereby omitting uncertainty that arises from changing patterns in the assumed components of demographic change. We use a cohort‐component model that incorporates the spatial distribution of a net number of international migrants and internal migration matrices to provide population projections for 401 counties in Germany until 2070, encompassing nine total international and internal migration scenario combinations. Our results show a full potential outcome space of future subnational population change in Germany and highlight the variability in this possible change in terms of population structure, size, and spatial distribution. Across the scenarios, the total population of Germany is projected to be between 74.25 and 86.84 million people in 2040 (83.4 in 2023). There are also considerable differences in how the total population and its distribution might change spatially, both between urban and rural areas and in age structure. Thus, depending on the assumed absolute level of net international migration and the direction of internal migratory patterns we, highlight how internal and international migration patterns will continue to play a large role in future population development in Germany at the county level.

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Declining internal migration? Patterns, causes and prospects

Cited by 7 publications

References 18 publications

Are younger adults becoming less residentially mobile? A decomposition analysis of British trends, 1997–2019

Are younger adults becoming less residentially mobile? A decomposition analysis of British trends, 1997–2019

Urban–Rural Population Movements

Future Subnational Population Change in Germany: The Role of Internal and International Migration

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