Declining use of clean cooking fuels & food security in 2022: Downstream impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war in a Kenyan informal urban settlement

Abstract

Energy market turmoil due to the Russian-Ukrainian war increased global fuel/food prices. While risks to energy and food security have been suggested, little research has documented impacts for the most vulnerable. During September-October 2022, surveys were administered to 701 households using pay-as-you-go liquefied petroleum gas (PAYG LPG) for clean cooking in an informal settlement in Nairobi, Kenya. Paired t-tests compared PAYG LPG consumption/payment behaviors before (July-October 2021) and during a >15% inflationary food price period (July-October 2022). Three-quarters (74%; n=520) of all households and 94% of food insecure households (n=393; 54% of sample) changed their dietary behavior (changed foods cooked, skipped more meals, and/or reduced PAYG LPG consumption) in 2022. Between July-October 2021 and 2022, PAYG LPG prices increased by 16% (214 Kenyan Shilling (KSh)/kg ($1.53USD/kg) to 249 KSh/kg ($1.78USD/kg) and households reduced their monthly PAYG LPG expenditure by 79% (856 KSh ($6.07USD) to 184 KSh ($1.31USD)). Although 97% of participants continued using PAYG LPG in July-October 2022, average consumption declined by two-thirds (0.82 to 0.27 kg/capita/month; difference(paired-t):-0.28 95%CI:[-0.36,-0.21]). Higher food and LPG prices in 2022 led to substantial declines in food security and LPG consumption in an informal urban settlement, highlighting increased obstacles to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.

In praise of fossil fuel subsidies (for cooking)‡

“…For the 8% VAT scenario, the price reduction is 7%. This agrees with observational evidence from Shupler et al (2023) ( 16 ).…”

“…Similarly, CO2e emissions go up because biomass stoves are less efficient and emit greenhouse gases more than LPG per unit energy delivered. To estimate mortality changes for plausible LPG cylinder refill price changes, we draw on distributions of LPG consumption from household surveys, an empirically-derived LPG price elasticities from (quasi-)experimental in-country studies 16,22 (we assume that higher-consuming households are wealthier and more price inelastic), in-country personal PM 2.5 exposure modeling among households using levels of LPG use (see Fig 1), population and crude mortality rate projections from 2023—2030, and the GEMM exposure-response relationship (see SM).…”

Burden of headaches, eye irritation and respiratory symptoms among females stacking LPG with polluting cooking fuels: Modelling from peri-urban Cameroon, Ghana & Kenya

“…Thus, governments should also consider programs that can promote "cleaner stacking" through use of multiple appliances that respond to locally relevant household needs. Additionally, given the proportion of fuel switching documented in this study, policies are needed to mitigate interruptions to clean fuel affordability, due to seasonal [ 48 ] or external price increases [ 49 ].…”