Decoding the Thucydides Trap: A Critical Examination of China's Military Capabilities

Abstract

This paper delves into the rise of China and examines the "China Threat" and "Thucydides Trap" discourse, which examines the possibility of military conflict between China and the US. As China's economy has boomed, surpassing Japan and nearing the United States in GDP, Washington's concern over its global influence have intensified. Graham Allison's "Thucydides Trap" theory posits a risk of war during power transitions, igniting debates on the likelihood of China threat and Sino-US conflict. However, dissenting voices argue that China's rise lacks evidence of expansionist aims and capability, emphasizing the prospects for peaceful coexistence. The paper explores China's military modernization efforts, revealing a substantial gap with the US. Examining naval, aerial, and missile capabilities, it underscores China's cautious defensive strategy, constrained by economic considerations and regional alliances. It also argues that while concerns and tensions exist, the likelihood of confrontation in the next decade remains low due to China's current military gap with the United States. Beyond the conventional narrative of the "Thucydides Trap," the paper contributes a military perspective to the discourse on China's rise and its potential implications, navigating