Decomposing the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff changes in the Yangtze River Basin: Insights from regional differences and spatial correlations of multiple factors

Chen, Ting; Zou, Lei; Xia, Jun; Liu, Huiyuan; Wang, Feiyu

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128649

Cited by 20 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 80 publications

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“…The elasticity coefficient method and PLS-SEM illustrate that climate change plays a dominant role in the runoff of the YJRB (37.94% $ 61.40%). As previous researches has shown (Chen et al, 2022;Mo et al, 2023;Rodríguez Flores et al, 2022), precipitation is the primary factor influencing changes in runoff as it is the most important factor in runoff variations in the humid subtropical climate of Southern China. The surface soil is scarce, rock fissures are well-developed and unconventional flow occurs extremely after heavy precipitation in karst regions (Borsi et al, 2004).…”

Section: F I G U R Ementioning

confidence: 97%

Mediation effects of vegetation, land use and cover change and karst characteristics on hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins

Wu,

Li,

Xiao

et al. 2024

Hydrological Processes

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A thorough understanding of the complex response of hydrologic processes to latent factors is of great significance for regional soil erosion and water resources management. However, what kind of mediation effect exists between hydrologic processes and latent factors is not yet clear, especially in heterogeneous karst regions. In this study, the elasticity coefficient method and partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS‐SEM) were used to investigate the mechanism of latent factors on hydrologic processes in karst basins and to explore the mediation effect between latent factors and hydrologic processes. The results show that the runoff of Yeji River Basin decreased during 1997–2004, but increased or stabilized since 2005. On the monthly scale, the runoff in July and December showed an ‘inverted V‐shaped’ change. Both elasticity coefficient method and PLS‐SEM showed that climate change contributed the most to runoff (direct effect accounted for 37.94% ~ 61.41%). In PLS‐SEM, the total effect sizes of latent factors on runoff were as follows: climate change (0.751 ~ 0.963) > vegetation (0.296 ~ 0.740) > karst characteristics factors (KCF) (−0.454 ~ −0.563) > human activities (−0.036 ~ −0.528) > land use and cover change (LUCC) (−0.036 ~ −0.205). In the typical karst basin, two mediation pathways have been determined: human activities‐vegetation/LUCC‐runoff, where vegetation and LUCC had a mediation effect of relationships between human activities and runoff; climate change‐KCF‐runoff, where KCF had a mediation effect of relationships between climate change and runoff. Moreover, PLS‐SEM is a preferred method to decouple the complex responses of hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins to climate change and human activities than the elasticity coefficient method. This study conducted further research and exploration on the mechanism of hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins, and provided valuable theoretical references for grassroots water managers to cope with water resources management under the context of future climate change.

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Section: F I G U R Ementioning

confidence: 97%

Mediation effects of vegetation, land use and cover change and karst characteristics on hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins

Wu,

Li,

Xiao

et al. 2024

Hydrological Processes

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“…Freshwater availability is the second most responsive environmental variable to climate change after air temperaturę [7], [1], [8], [9], [10]. The timeliness of temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation and temperature, despite the many papers that have been written and analyses performed [11], [12], [13], [14], [15], [16], [17], [18] especially in recent decades is increasing due to the documentation of theses of the impact of human activities on regional climatic factors [19], [20], [21]. Computational capabilities and complex analyses performed on long series of measurements are attracting interest [22], [8], [23] also as a result of the search for justification of theses of polarization of extreme phenomena [24], [1], [25], [26], [27], [28], [29], [30].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Polarization of Climate Phenomena Based on Long-Term Precipitation and Temperature Sequences

Twaróg¹

2023

Preprint

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The article presents an analysis of monthly precipitation totals based on the GPCC database, and monthly mean temperatures (NOAA data) for 377 catchments distributed across the globe. The analysis included 110-year data sequences from 1901 to 2010 calculated from grid data with a spatial resolution of 0.5°x 0.5° longitude and latitude. Long-term sequences of precipitation and temperature were used to assess the polarization of climatic phenomena. The noticeable impact of polarization in the area of extreme changes in temperature and precipitation is related to anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation and pollution, which affect ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, water resources and economies. The paper demonstrates the existence of trends related to the polarization of temperature and precipitation phenomena. The measures of polarization used in science are discussed. A simple measure of polarization was proposed and applied to both long-term sequences of monthly precipitation totals and monthly mean temperature. Due to the nature of the proposed polarization measure, other characteristics of the precipitation and temperature sequences are also presented as background for the discussion of the polarization index. The paper presents, for a selection of several hundred catchments from around the world, analyses of the assessment of precipitation and temperature trends using non-parametric tests. The trend analyses use Mann -Kendall tests at the 5% significance level. A Pettitt test was used to determine the trend change point for precipitation and temperature data. The whole is supported by rich graphical analyses and the results are presented tabularly.

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“…The natural environment, being the prerequisite for the survival of human society, bears the weight of providing the spatial foundation for social material life and sustainable development (Hu et al, 2022). As the most complex challenge that humankind is facing now, climate change has become a hot topic being studied globally (Chen et al, 2022). Due to the changes in the climate conditions of precipitation, wind speed, and light radiation, the structure and functions of the natural environment have been significantly changed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Wind Erosion Climate Erosivity in the Arid Desert Region of Northwestern China

Wenzhang,

Jin,

Sirui

et al. 2023

Journal of Resources and Ecology

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Soil wind erosion is an important factor that inhibits social activities and economic development in the arid desert region of northwestern China. In order to reveal the distribution of soil wind erosion climate erosivity in the arid desert region of northwestern China, the spatial and temporal variation and transfer characteristics of wind erosion climate erosivity in the region were evaluated by referring to China's regional ground long-time series meteorological element driving data, and applying the ArcGIS software analysis. The study results show that: (1) Against a backdrop that such meteorological factors as precipitation amount, wind speed, and average temperature over multiple years all increase progressively decade by decade, the wind erosion climate erosivity in the northwest arid desert region is decreasing as a whole. The C values of most areas are within the range of 0 to 100. However, the climate erosivity in the hinterland and a few areas is increasing, with C values higher than 150. (2) The monthly variation of the C value varies significantly. The greatest variation occurs in spring and summer, followed by the variation in winter, while the slightest variation occurs in autumn. Through the abrupt change test, it is found that the wind erosion climate erosivity in spring has the strongest variation, with four abrupt change points and a pattern of long-term fluctuating decline. (3) The soil wind erosion in the region gradually decreases from the hinterland to the peripheral areas, with the areas highly affected by erosion increasing yearly. (4) The spatial-temporal transfer and variation of wind erosion climate erosivity present an overall pattern of slight decrease. However, in some areas, they increase or show an apparent trend of increase. The study results have provided relevant theoretical evidence and scientific support for preventing and controlling wind-sand disasters in the arid desert region of northwestern China.

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Decomposing the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff changes in the Yangtze River Basin: Insights from regional differences and spatial correlations of multiple factors

Cited by 20 publications

References 80 publications

Mediation effects of vegetation, land use and cover change and karst characteristics on hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins

Mediation effects of vegetation, land use and cover change and karst characteristics on hydrologic processes in heterogeneous karst basins

Assessing the Polarization of Climate Phenomena Based on Long-Term Precipitation and Temperature Sequences

Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Wind Erosion Climate Erosivity in the Arid Desert Region of Northwestern China

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