Decomposing the Rise of the Populist Radical Right

Immigration and Political Realignment

“…The central theme of this paper complements these theories by providing empirical evidence that immigration can impact party support and reshape political cleavages, underscoring the increasing importance of cultural factors in political decision-making by overshadowing the traditional emphasis on class-based politics. This finding aligns with one of the scant empirical investigations in this area, Danieli et al (2022), which highlights how people's priorities have shifted from economics towards cultural issues over time.…”

Racial Threat in Public Social Spaces

“…This relative increase in the importance of cultural over economic concerns benefits far-right parties such as the Alternative für Deutschland, which, similar to other right-wing populist parties, runs on an economic platform that disproportionately benefits the rich(Hacker and Pierson 2020; FAZ 2023). More generally, these results align with a large body of prior research highlighting immigration salience as a key driver of far-right support(Ivarsflaten 2008;De Vries, Hakhverdian and Lancee 2013;Dennison 2020;Danieli et al 2022) and the stability of immigration attitudes(Kustov, Laaker and Reller 2021).…”

“…Cues of cultural and racial threat -such as exposure to ethnic diversity in public social spaces in our setting -can galvanize voters with preexisting anti-immigrant preferences (Blalock 1967;Kustov, Laaker and Reller 2021). In line with this argument, prior research has established immigration salience as a key predictor of far-right success and electoral support in a variety of contexts (Ivarsflaten 2008;De Vries, Hakhverdian and Lancee 2013;Dennison 2020;Danieli et al 2022). Far-right parties benefit as voters with pre-existing racial stereotypes and antiimmigrant preferences attach greater weight to these preferences when choosing between different party platforms and, therefore, become more likely to cast their ballots for far-right parties and candidates.…”

“…Exposure to diversity in public social spaces, in other words, can increase the issue salience of immigration among native voters. Following standard spatial voting models, we argue that raising the issue salience of immigration benefits far-right parties, as voters with anti-immigrant preferences become more likely to vote for far-right parties regardless of their positions on other political issues (Ivarsflaten 2008;De Vries, Hakhverdian and Lancee 2013;Dennison 2020;Danieli et al 2022). This can be particularly beneficial for far-right parties such as the German Alternative für Deutschland, which combines antiimmigrant rhetoric with economic policies that run diametrically opposite to most of their constituents' interests (FAZ 2023).…”

“…This mechanism is particularly relevant in the context of immigration, where preferences tend to be highly stable over the life course (Kustov, Laaker and Reller 2021). Future research should pay equal attention to changes in issue preferences and salience, as the latter appears more malleable in adult voters and thus more likely to precipitate political changes over the short-and medium-term (Sears and Funk 1999;San Miguel, Ryan and Scott 2002;Prior 2010;Dennison and Kriesi 2023;Danieli et al 2022).…”