Decomposing the role of mobility restrictions in controlling COVID-19 outcomes: a regional level study of the Philippines

Abstract

PurposeThis paper aims to explore empirically the interactions between the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, economic mobility and containment policy to test the effectiveness of mobility restrictions in controlling the spread of the disease.Design/methodology/approachThis study used weekly regional data for the 17 Philippine regions and estimated the effect of shocks using a panel vector autoregression (VAR) model.FindingsThe authors conclude that COVID-19 deaths and incidence primarily respond to shocks that affect the lethality and transmissibility of the disease, and mobility restrictions and strict quarantine levels do not seem to have any impact on these outcomes. The movement of people during this pandemic period, on the other hand, seems to respond more to economic factors and government restrictions and less to the presence of and the characteristics of the disease.Originality/valueSince the pandemic is a public bad, community cooperation is a must to address it. Clear government messaging that dispels doubts on the safety of the newly developed vaccines and that encourages public acceptance and trust might be a better nudge compared to a heavy-handed and threatening approach.

IJHG27.4 Review

“…Gaduena et al (2022) found that mobility restrictions have no or limited effect on virus transmission. Replicating their methodology in other settings would assist in answering the question as to whether this finding could be applied outside the research area.…”

“…Three articles deal specifically with topics around the COVID-19 pandemic. Gaduena et al (2022) examine the effect of mobility restriction on the spread of the COVID-19 virus in the Philippines. Surprisingly their conclusion argues that mobility restriction does not prevent viral transmission; this position is challenged by other authors, but read the article carefully before making your own mind up.…”

“…While this was effective in the National Capital Region (NCR), vaccine hesitancy in other regions due to uncertainty about safety and erroneous beliefs sourced from social media platforms meant that overall immunization was lower in the Philippines than in other countries in the region (Amit et al, 2022). Gaduena et al (2022) found that mobility restrictions have no or limited effect on virus transmission. Replicating their methodology in other settings would assist in answering the question as to whether this finding could be applied outside the research area.…”

“…As Gaduena et al (2022) also reported that people were more concerned about the economic impact of the pandemic than they were about the virus itself, some of this discrepancy could be attributable to people ignoring or circumventing mobility restrictions. Food and economic security are more immediate concerns than exposure to an illness that one may or may not catch.…”

“…This may be because tests were unavailable, were not free or widely distributed, or because people, particularly those without symptoms did not see the necessity of testing. People with no or mild symptoms may also have avoided testing because of the economic implications of a positive test (Gaduena et al, 2022). Kilci (2022) contrasts Germany's experience with that of Italy, which had one of the highest COVID-19 mortality rates in Europe; this may be partially due to the fact that Italy did not have sufficient COVID-19 test kits to implement large-scale population testing.…”