Decomposition of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions in ASEAN Based on Kaya Identity

Abstract

ASEAN is a region with high carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, accompanied by an increase in population, gross domestic product (GDP) and energy consumption. Population, GDP, and energy consumption can be linked to CO2 emissions through an identity equation called the Rich Identity. This research is based on Kaya identity to describe CO2 emissions to calculate the impact of population, economic activity, energy intensity and carbon intensity on CO2 emissions in ASEAN and 8 ASEAN countries (i.e., Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar and Brunei Darussalam) from 1990 to 2017. The method used is the Logarithmic Mean Division Index (LMDI). The data used are from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the World Bank. Four effects measured and main findings showed that population, economic activity and carbon intensity factor increased by 293.02 MtCO2, 790.0 MtCO2, and 195.51 MtCO2, respectively. Meanwhile, energy intensity effect made ASEAN's CO2 emissions decrease by 283.13 MtCO2. Regarding contributions to the increase in CO2 emissions in all ASEAN countries, the population effect increases CO2 emissions in all countries in ASEAN and the economic activity effect is also the same, except in Brunei Darussalam which makes CO2 emissions in this country decreased by 1.07 MtCO2. Meanwhile, the effects of energy and carbon intensity are different. The effect of energy intensity causes CO2 emissions in lower-middle income countries to decrease, while in upper-middle and high-income countries, it increases carbon emissions. In contrast to the effect of carbon intensity, that actually makes CO2 emissions increase in lower-middle income countries and reduces carbon emissions in upper-middle and high-income countries.

The Impact of Economic Growth and Urbanisation on Environmental Degradation in the Baltic States: An Extended Kaya Identity

“…The G7 group of rich nations' reduced carbon dioxide emissions appeared to be mostly driven by energy intensity [23]. Lower-middleincome countries have a decrease in CO 2 emissions as a result of the energy intensity effect, whereas upper-middle and high-income countries experience an increase that may both raise and lower the overall level of CO 2 emissions [24]. According to a Kaya identity decomposition, the rise in GDP was the primary driver of the EU's territorial emissions prior to the global financial crisis [54].…”

“…The researchers applied Kaya identity and used statistical data from 1990 to 2015. The impact of factors on environmental degradation according to the average income of the country's population was also studied [24]. Analysis shows that in lower-middle-income countries, energy intensity reduces CO 2 emissions, while in upper-middle-and highincome countries, it increases carbon emissions.…”

Determinan fenomena perubahan iklim dalam perspektif sosial ekonomi di Pulau Jawa dan Pulau Sumatera

“…Pengaruh dari kepadatan penduduk terhadap fenomena perubahan iklim dapat terjadi melalui beberapa mekanisme. Menurut Khusna & Kusumawardani (2021), bertambahnya penduduk selaras dengan adanya peningkatan terkait permintaan penawaran barang dan jasa, sehingga energi sebagai salah satu faktor produksi memiliki peran penting dalam hal memenuhi kebutuhan penduduk. Hal tersebut mengakibatkan sumber daya alam primer yang tersedia semakin menipis dan konsumsi energi yang berlebih untuk menjalankan produksi barang dan jasa, sehingga berpotensi terhadap penurunan kualitas lingkungan.…”

“…Meningkatnya Kepadatan Penduduk merupakan faktor lain yang dapat berpotensi pada terjadinya perubahan iklim. Menurut Khusna & Kusumawardani (2021), kepadatan penduduk yang meningkat, selaras dengan meningkatnya permintaan penawaran untuk barang dan jasa yang mengakibatkan energi sebagai faktor produksi memiliki peran yang penting untuk bisa digunakan dalam memenuhi kebutuhan hidup di lingkungan penduduk. Kondisi seperti itu membuat ketersediaan sumber daya alam primer semakin menipis, karena tingginya konsumsi energi untuk menjalankan proses produksi barang dan jasa yang berpotensi terhadap degradasi lingkungan.…”

Review on Greenhouse Gases Emission in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Countries

“…Population and GDP growth play a critical role in increasing carbon emissions by impacting demand for higher electricity consumption [38]. Indonesia is a developing country in the ASEAN with the largest population and total area.…”