Deconstructing Stability: The Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian War on the Formation of a New System of International Relations

Abstract

On February 24, 2022, a full-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine began. It became a continuation of the Russian hybrid offensive and finally testified to the transition to a new geopolitical reality. In this sense, the Russian-Ukrainian war of 2014–2024 should be considered a postponed major European war. It initiated the transition from post-bipolarity to a neo-post-bipolar international system. The Russian-Ukrainian war became the most powerful armed conflict in Europe after the end of the Second World War. Russian hybrid and full-scale aggression caused a wave of political-diplomatic, military, socio-economic tsunami. It significantly influenced the transformation of the post-bipolar international order that functioned after the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union and the communist bloc. Today, it is impossible to accurately determine all the consequences and changes in the international arena that the modern Russian-Ukrainian war will lead to. However, it should be considered a turning point for the activation of radical changes. First, the modern neo-post-bipolar system of unstable equilibrium relations is characterized by an orientation towards the transformation of the global international order into a “post-American world”. Secondly, other centers of globalization have emerged and are gaining strength, especially the People's Republic of China and the EU, as well as the G 20 and BRICS states. Thirdly, the Russian Federation seeks to create an anti-American/anti-Western coalition in the face of an acute armed conflict and increased sanctions. Fourthly, the transformation of the modern system of international relations takes place in the direction of the formation of polycentrism while preserving the “deconstruction of stability”, that is, the strengthening of the conflict-causing potential at the global, regional, and peripheral levels.