Decrease in deformation rate as a possible precursor to the next Parkfield earthquake

Wyss, Max; Slater, L. E.; Burford, R. O.

doi:10.1038/345428a0

Cited by 26 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Thus, the observed deformations induced by stressed strata can be caused by both adjacent and large distant earthquakes. Seismogenic deformation associated with earthquakes is generally studied by using two instruments located at a short spatial interval crossing fault rupture zones (Wyss et al 1990). The debate regarding earthquake precursors in surface deformation (Wyss et al 1990;Rogers and Dragert 2003) is possibly resulted from inhomogeneous structures within a local region.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Seismogenic deformation associated with earthquakes is generally studied by using two instruments located at a short spatial interval crossing fault rupture zones (Wyss et al 1990). The debate regarding earthquake precursors in surface deformation (Wyss et al 1990;Rogers and Dragert 2003) is possibly resulted from inhomogeneous structures within a local region. Since areas where stress accumulation triggers earthquake slips are quite large, all instruments located inside a study area can be utilized simultaneously to reduce failure risks and inconsistencies among precursors due to inhomogeneous structures.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Surface Deformation and Seismic Rebound: Implications and Applications

Chen

Yeh²,

Liu

et al. 2011

Surv Geophys

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An earthquake process includes pre-seismic stress accumulation, co-seismic rock rupture and post-seismic elastic and/or viscoelastic rebound. Although co-seismic and post-seismic deformations have been readily observed using the global positioning system (GPS), detecting pre-seismic stress accumulation hidden in time-series data remains challenging. This study applies the Hilbert-Huang transform to extract non-linear and nonstationary pre-earthquake deformation data from GPS records for central Taiwan. By converting the derived surface deformation into horizontal azimuths, the randomly oriented GPS-azimuths are reoriented in a similar direction several days before and after earthquakes due to loading and rebound stress, respectively. Analytical results demonstrate that the stress accumulation and release along the entire course of an earthquake process provide significant evidence supporting the seismic rebound theory. This finding would be applicable to areas with dense GPS networks and active plate interactions. Surface deformations detected by the proposed analytical technique have encouraging potential for mitigating future seismic hazards.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Surface Deformation and Seismic Rebound: Implications and Applications

Chen

Yeh²,

Liu

et al. 2011

Surv Geophys

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“…However, it should be noted from the prediction viewpoint that aseismic slips in some regions are not necessarily the immediate precursor to a large event. For example, both the seismic quiescence and geodetic anomaly in Parkfield zone [Wyss et al, 1990a[Wyss et al, , 1990b was not followed by the main rupture until 2004. Moreover, we have so far observed a number of aseismic slips, or silent earthquakes, sometimes repeated in the same The plus and minus for the cumulative residuals represent acceleration or deceleration of the extending strain rate, respectively.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Yet, the physical mechanisms at work are still heavily disputed. For example, quite a few papers have proposed various mechanisms to explain precursory seismic quiescence within the source region of a future large earthquake [Kelleher and Savino, 1975;Kanamori, 1981;Wyss et al, 1990b;Cao and Aki, 1985;Mikumo and Miyatake, 1983;Hainzl et al, 2000].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismicity and geodetic anomalies in a wide area preceding the Niigata‐Ken‐Chuetsu earthquake of 23 October 2004, central Japan

Ogata

2007

J. Geophys. Res.

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[1] The ordinary short-term occurrence rate of earthquakes in a region is predicted using the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model of triggering seismicity. Any anomalous seismic activity, such as quiescence and activation, can be quantified by identifying significant deviation from the predicted rate. Such anomalies are revealed to have occurred during the three year period leading up to the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake of M6.8 (M w 6.6), central Japan. The quiescence and activation, which took place in the zone of negative and positive increments of the Coulomb failure stress, respectively, were possibly caused by aseismic slip on or near the focal fault plane. Such slip is further supported by transient crustal movement around the rupture source. Time series records of the baseline distances between permanent GPS stations deviated from the predicted trends, with the deviations mostly consistent with the coseismic horizontal displacements of the stations due to the Chuetsu earthquake. The cumulated preceding slip is estimated to be roughly equivalent to M w 6.

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“…To date, silent earthquakes or slow-slip events have been reported worldwide on many plate boundaries and elsewhere, either in post-seismic observations (KAWASAKI et al, 1995;HEKI et al, 1997;GSI, 2005bGSI, , 2007, pre-seismically (SEGALL et al, 2006;OGATA, 2007), or independently (WYSS et al, 1990b;HIROSE et al, 1999;DRAGERT et al, 2001;OZAWA et al, 2002;GSI, 2004). This paper intends to provide further evidence of pre-seismic slip and suggests that silent slip can take place on a shallow intra-plate fault or down-dip extension.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Anomalies of Seismic Activity and Transient Crustal Deformations Preceding the 2005 M 7.0 Earthquake West of Fukuoka

Ogata

2010

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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If aseismic slip occurs on a fault or its deeper extension, both seismicity and crustal deformation around the source would be affected. Anomalous phenomena of this kind are revealed from earthquake occurrence data and geodetic records during a period of 10 years leading up to the March 2005 M 7.0 earthquake west of Fukuoka that occurred off the northern coast of Kyushu, Japan. Seismicity rate anomalies (quiescence and activation) took place relative to the rates expected by the ETAS model in a number of seismic zones in and around the Kyushu District. The seismic zone of the relative quiescence and activation consistently corresponds to the zone of the negative and positive DCFS (Coulomb failure stress change), respectively, assuming the precursory aseismic slips on the M 7.0 source fault. In addition, we consider the time series of geodetic baseline distances between permanent GPS stations in the Kyushu District for the same period, which also supports the possible precursory slips rather than the known slow slips beneath the Bungo Straight, off the eastern coast of Kyushu.

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Decrease in deformation rate as a possible precursor to the next Parkfield earthquake

Cited by 26 publications

References 11 publications

Surface Deformation and Seismic Rebound: Implications and Applications

Surface Deformation and Seismic Rebound: Implications and Applications

Seismicity and geodetic anomalies in a wide area preceding the Niigata‐Ken‐Chuetsu earthquake of 23 October 2004, central Japan

Anomalies of Seismic Activity and Transient Crustal Deformations Preceding the 2005 M 7.0 Earthquake West of Fukuoka

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