Decreased influenza activity during the COVID-19 pandemic—United States, Australia, Chile, and South Africa, 2020

Olsen, Sonja J.; Azziz‐Baumgartner, Eduardo; Budd, Alicia; Brammer, Lynnette; Sullivan, Sheena G.; Pineda, Rodrigo Fasce; Cohen, Cheryl; Fry, Alicia M.

doi:10.1111/ajt.16381

Cited by 366 publications

(409 citation statements)

References 10 publications

(12 reference statements)

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“…This is in line with a recent report from the United States showing a significant decrease in the occurrence of seasonal respiratory virus infections during the COVID‐19 outbreak, potentially due to increased epidemiological awareness among the general public, as well as the social distancing measures implemented 6 . Data from clinical laboratories in the United States, Australia, Chile, and South Africa showed very low influenza activity during corresponding influenza seasons 7 . Compared to this, hepatitis A had a subtle decline between March and May and hepatitis B showed decreased cases since May of 2020.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Impact of social distancing on incidence of vaccine‐preventable diseases, South Korea

Yun

Ryu

Choe

2020

Journal of Medical Virology

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While vaccination remains the cornerstone of controlling vaccine‐preventive diseases (VPD), little is known about the effect of social distancing on incidence of VPDs. We investigated the impact of social distancing practiced during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic on the incidence of selected VPDs in South Korea. National surveillance data on monthly incidence of hepatitis A, hepatitis B, varicella, mumps, invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), and pertussis were retrieved and compared the VPD incidences in 2020 to the average of the last 4 years (2015–2019) of the corresponding months. In 2020, there were 44% decline for mumps, 44% decline for varicella, 28% decline for pertussis, 22% decline for IPD, 14% decline in incidence of hepatitis A, and no change for hepatitis B incidences, compared to baseline years (2015–2019). The largest decline of total VPDs was in April (65%) and in May (67%), during the intensified social distancing measures. In the setting of sustained vaccination coverage, social distancing may provide additional public health benefit in controlling the VPDs.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Impact of social distancing on incidence of vaccine‐preventable diseases, South Korea

Yun

Ryu

Choe

2020

Journal of Medical Virology

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“…Test positivity reached a 7-day average of 33% nationally and 48% at the peak of the epidemic in Greater Santiago, suggesting that a substantial proportion of cases were left without testing. In our favor, the circulation of other respiratory viruses has been of no importance during the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile and elsewhere [ 26 ] in the southern hemisphere.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In June, 7-day average positivity rates of the RT-PCR tests reached 33% nationally. Evidence shows that the circulation of other respiratory viruses, such as influenza, has been negligible in Chile and elsewhere in the southern hemisphere [ 26 ]. With 130 total RT-PCR tests per 1000 population by August 31, Chile has tested at a higher rate than any other Latin American country [ 27 , 28 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 case fatality risk by age and gender in a high testing setting in Latin America: Chile, March–August 2020

2021

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Background Early severity estimates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are critically needed to assess the potential impact of the ongoing pandemic in different demographic groups. Here we estimate the real-time delay-adjusted case fatality rate across nine age groups by gender in Chile, the country with the highest testing rate for COVID-19 in Latin America. Methods We used a publicly available real-time daily series of age-stratified COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by the Ministry of Health in Chile from the beginning of the epidemic in March through August 31, 2020. We used a robust likelihood function and a delay distribution to estimate real-time delay-adjusted case-fatality risk and estimate model parameters using a Monte Carlo Markov Chain in a Bayesian framework. Results As of August 31, 2020, our estimates of the time-delay adjusted case fatality rate (CFR) for men and women are 4.16% [95% Credible Interval (CrI): 4.09–4.24%] and 3.26% (95% CrI: 3.19–3.34%), respectively, while the overall estimate is 3.72% (95% CrI: 3.67–3.78%). Seniors aged 80 years and over have an adjusted CFR of 56.82% (95% CrI: 55.25–58.34%) for men and 41.10% (95% CrI: 40.02–42.26%) for women. Results showed a peak in estimated CFR during the June peak of the epidemic. The peak possibly reflects insufficient laboratory capacity, as illustrated by high test positivity rates (33% positive 7-day average nationally in June), which may have resulted in lower reporting rates. Conclusions Severity estimates from COVID-19 in Chile suggest that male seniors, especially among those aged ≥ 70 years, are being disproportionately affected by the pandemic, a finding consistent with other regions. The ongoing pandemic is imposing a high death toll in South America, and Chile has one of the highest reported mortality rates globally thus far. These real-time estimates may help inform public health officials' decisions in the region and underscore the need to implement more effective measures to ameliorate fatality.

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“…Also, interference requires closely spaced virus co-exposures, which may be less frequent at certain times of the year, or during the use of pandemic mitigation measures. Low rates of influenza during 2020 in the southern hemisphere indicate that the public health measures put in place to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 also suppressed circulation of other respiratory viruses, although there is some evidence that rhinoviruses have continued to circulate (Olsen et al, 2020;Poole et al, 2020). Viral interference may become a more important consideration for understanding susceptibly to COVID-19 and other viral pathogens as society reopens.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Magnitude and timing of the antiviral response determine SARS-CoV-2 replication early in infection

Cheemarla

Watkins

Mihaylova

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The interferon response is a potent antiviral defense mechanism, but its effectiveness depends on its timing relative to viral replication. Here, we report viral replication and host response kinetics in patients at the start of SARS-CoV-2 infection and explore the impact of these kinetics experimentally. In both longitudinal patient nasopharyngeal samples and airway epithelial organoids, we found that SARS-CoV-2 initially replicated exponentially with a doubling time of ∼6hr, and induced interferon stimulated genes (ISGs) with delayed timing relative to viral replication. Prior exposure to rhinovirus increased ISG levels and blocked SARS-CoV-2 replication. Conversely, inhibiting ISG induction abrogated interference by rhinovirus and enhanced SARS-CoV-2 replication rate. These results demonstrate the importance of initial interferon-mediated defenses in determining the extent to which SARS-CoV-2 can replicate at the start of infection and indicate that biological variables that alter the airway interferon response, including heterologous induction of innate immunity by other viruses, could profoundly impact SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and transmission.

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Decreased influenza activity during the COVID-19 pandemic—United States, Australia, Chile, and South Africa, 2020

Abstract: Transplant recipients are among the groups for whom the updated recommendations for 2020–2021 influenza vaccination should generally be considered essential, notably in the face of the COVID‐19 pandemic.

Cited by 366 publications

References 10 publications

Impact of social distancing on incidence of vaccine‐preventable diseases, South Korea

Impact of social distancing on incidence of vaccine‐preventable diseases, South Korea

COVID-19 case fatality risk by age and gender in a high testing setting in Latin America: Chile, March–August 2020

Magnitude and timing of the antiviral response determine SARS-CoV-2 replication early in infection

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