Decreasing fertility vs increasing longevity: Raising the retirement age in the context of ageing processes

Bielecki, Marcin; Goraus, Karolina; Hagemejer, Jan; Tyrowicz, Joanna

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2015.02.020

Cited by 29 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 32 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Using a multi-period, general equilibrium and overlapping generations (OLG) model, Díaz-Giménez and Díaz-Saavedra (2009) studied the macroeconomic consequences of delayed retirement in Spain and found that the lower consumption tax rates resulting in welfare gains compensate the welfare costs brought about by the reduced pensions and leisure. Bielecki et al (2016) evaluated the welfare effects of increasing the retirement age for various demographic scenarios under DB, notionally DC and funded DC system. The simulation results showed a universally welfare enhancing for all living and future cohorts regardless of different pension system, and welfare would further increase if productivity is relatively high at old ages.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Simulation Study of the Effect of Delayed Retirement on Welfare of the Elderly: Evidence from China

Zheng

Yang

2021

Sage Open

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In order to cope with population aging and emerging labor shortages, the Chinese government may soon introduce a policy to address this problem by raising the normal retirement age. However, the effects of planning for delayed retirement on the welfare of the elderly remain unknown. From an intergenerational support perspective, we develop a dynamic optimization model that can simulate changes in the welfare of the elderly over the years under different delayed retirement scenarios. Simulation results show that delaying retirement will produce a detrimental effect on old-age welfare. We further analyze strategies to mitigate this adverse effect and improve people’s welfare. First, the delayed retirement policy should raise the pension replacement rate, which could transfer part of the social welfare improvements from delayed retirement to the elderly through the transfer payment mechanism. Second, when adopting a defined-contribution pension system, the delayed retirement could increase the welfare of the elderly and the social well-being. Implications for future research and public policies concerning welfare effects of delayed retirement are discussed.

show abstract

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Simulation Study of the Effect of Delayed Retirement on Welfare of the Elderly: Evidence from China

Zheng

Yang

2021

Sage Open

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Thus, an effective solution to this problem is increasing the retirement age combined with efficient human capital management through investment in education. Other researches show a positive trade-off between an increase in retirement age and the economy (for review : Bauer and Eichenberger, 2016;Bielecki et al, 2016;Lacomba and Lagos, 2006).…”

Section: Economic Activity Of the Near-elderlymentioning

confidence: 99%

Pensionable age vs cross-country diversity of economic activity of the near-elderly

Chybalski

2021

JEFAS

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether cross-country differences in pensionable age explain such differences in economic activity of people at near-retirement age. Design/methodology/approach The empirical study uses regression models for macro-panel encompassing 21 European countries in the period 2008–2014. Findings Empirical results indicate that pensionable age is a determinant of cross-country differences in employment rate in the near-retirement age group, and less a factor differentiating average effective retirement age. It turns out that other factors matter, including salaries and wages as percentage of GDP (treated as a proxy for the occupational composition of populations across the countries studied), self-employment, participation in education and training, or self-perceived health. Social implications The problem of economic activity at the near-retirement age is complex and cannot be limited to legal regulations concerning pensionable age. The policy aiming at stimulating the economic activity of the near-elderly should include actions on many sides including labour market, pension system, education, training, or health care. Originality/value The results complement studies based on the single-country approach and demonstrate that pensionable age does not account for cross-country differences in terms of average effective age of retirement when controlling for other factors. Moreover, factors differentiating effective retirement age and employments rates across countries studied are not similar.

show abstract

“…While to the best of our knowledge this is the first such evaluation of ECPs, we are certainly not the first to use OLG to provide an ex ante policy evaluation. In the case of Poland, previous attempts have included an analysis of the 1999 pension reform [Makarski et al, 2017], analysis of extensions in the retirement age from 2011 [Bielecki et al, 2016;Makarski, Tyrowicz, 2019], and an analysis of 2013 changes to the pension system [Hagemejer et al, 2015]. In terms of similar instruments, Borsch-Supan discusses evidence from across European countries and evidence for the so-called Riester Plan from Germany.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating an old-age voluntary saving scheme under incomplete rationality

Rutkowski¹

2019

Gospodarka Narodowa

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We provide an ex ante welfare, fiscal and general macroeconomic evaluation of the voluntary old-age saving scheme recently introduced in Poland and known as Employee Capital Plans. ECPs provide tax redemptions as well as lump-sum transfers with the objective to foster old-age savings. A reduction in capital income tax revenue and a rise in expenditure need to be compensated for through adjustments in other taxes. We employ an overlapping-generations model (OLG) to gauge the plausible magnitude of macroeconomic and welfare effects and to provide insights into the microfoundations of these adjustments. Our OLG model features voluntary participation and innovates relative to the literature by introducing agents with hand-to-mouth preferences. We find a relatively strong crowding-out of private savings. In our preferred specification, roughly PLN 0.08-0.09 of every PLN 1 allocated to ECPs is actually new savings, the rest being displaced from unincentivised private voluntary savings. The plausible values of effective capital growth in ECPs range between 0.03 and 0.42 of PLN 1. ECPs reduce the welfare of fully rational agents unless a sufficiently large annuity is offered. ECPs provide consumption smoothing and interest income to HTM agents.

show abstract

Decreasing fertility vs increasing longevity: Raising the retirement age in the context of ageing processes

Cited by 29 publications

References 32 publications

A Simulation Study of the Effect of Delayed Retirement on Welfare of the Elderly: Evidence from China

A Simulation Study of the Effect of Delayed Retirement on Welfare of the Elderly: Evidence from China

Pensionable age vs cross-country diversity of economic activity of the near-elderly

Evaluating an old-age voluntary saving scheme under incomplete rationality

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About